Ripple Price Forecast…XRP Below $1.50, Risk of Further Decline Increases

XRP Breaks Below $1.50…Is it Testing the $1.48 Support Line Amid Slowing ETF Demand?

▲ XRP, Cryptocurrency Decline/AI Generated Image ©

XRP (Ripple) has retreated from its September high of $1.66, falling below the key price level of $1.50. Spot ETF inflows have paused for two consecutive days, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a sell signal, highlighting the possibility of further decline below $1.48. However, major moving averages still provide mid-to-long-term support.

According to investment media FXStreet on October 1 (local time), XRP traded below $1.50 on Thursday, struggling to regain upward momentum. This trend aligns with the sluggish performance of major cryptocurrencies, as Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $83,000 but is capped at $85,000, and Ethereum (ETH) also remains within a narrow range of $2,600-$2,700. If XRP consistently recovers above $1.50, the short-term bullish outlook could improve, but with institutional demand slowing, the possibility of a further decline below the initial psychological support of $1.48 cannot be ruled out.

Institutional demand has entered a short-term consolidation phase. After five consecutive trading days of inflows, the US-listed XRP spot ETF did not show significant inflows on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the cumulative net inflow reached $1.8 billion, close to an all-time high, and net assets amounted to $1.7 billion, indicating that investors' positive long-term outlook remains intact. In the derivatives market, perpetual futures open interest (OI) increased from 2.33 billion XRP the previous day to 2.39 billion XRP on Thursday. The Fear & Greed Index also slightly rose from 71 to 74 the previous day, remaining in the 'Greed' zone.

Daily technical indicators show increasing selling pressure. Although XRP has fallen below $1.50, it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 200-day EMA, and is also maintaining a distance from the SuperTrend at $1.28. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated moderate bullish momentum at around 56, but the MACD slightly dipped below the 0 line, suggesting weakening short-term upward momentum. The immediate support level is $1.48, and if this price breaks, $1.37-$1.38, where the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are clustered, will be the next defense line. Subsequently, the 100-day EMA at $1.31 and the SuperTrend at $1.28 are presented as stronger lower support zones.

On the weekly chart, a bullish structure is still maintained. XRP continues to trade above its 200-week EMA of approximately $1.37, maintaining its break above the downward resistance trendline near $1.47. However, the 50-week EMA at $1.52 and the 100-week EMA at $1.58 act as overhead resistance, limiting mid-term recovery. The weekly MACD maintains a positive trend above the 0 line, and the RSI also indicates non-overheated momentum at around 55.

In the short term, defending $1.47-$1.48 and recovering $1.52 are key. If it surpasses $1.52, the next resistance is $1.58, and a sustained break above both price levels could strengthen the bullish trend. Conversely, if the $1.47-$1.48 support zone breaks, $1.37-$1.38 emerges as the next major defense line. With ETF demand temporarily cooling, whether XRP can reclaim $1.50 is considered a key variable in determining its short-term direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*