"The myth of a 580% surge is a thing of the past"...XRP, mid-term election rally skepticism emerges

▲ XRP/AI generated image

An analysis suggests that the myth of XRP, which surged by 580% from $0.5 to $3.4 immediately after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, is unlikely to be replicated in the upcoming mid-term elections. Unlike the past, when a unique positive factor—the conclusion of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit—was combined with the political event of a presidential victory, this election faces a completely different market environment characterized by an increase in circulating supply and a lack of legal momentum.

According to the U.S. financial media outlet 24/7 Wall Street on September 19 (local time), XRP was trading around $0.5 just before the November 5, 2024 presidential election. It then surged to $3.4 by mid-January 2025, buoyed by Donald Trump's election as U.S. President and the announcement of SEC Chair Gary Gensler's resignation. Subsequently, in July 2025, driven by a settlement between Ripple and the SEC, it reached a cycle high of $3.65. In August, when the SEC withdrew its appeal, it further rebounded to $3.38. However, a deepening downturn in 2026 pushed it down to $0.99 last August, a 73% plunge from its peak, returning to pre-presidential rally levels.

The outlet analyzed that the key driving force behind that rally was not merely a political election but the resolution of legal risks. Given that the expectation of an end to the SEC lawsuit, which had been ongoing since December 2020, pushed prices up, it is difficult to expect the same explosive power from mid-term election results alone, which are unrelated to court proceedings. In reality, the voting results themselves do not erase lawsuit records, and political factors accounted for only half of the upward momentum at the time, the explanation added.

Structural supply expansion is also cited as a factor limiting future upward momentum. The market supply of XRP has almost doubled since 2018, and due to a much larger supply volume than during its $0.5 days, even if the same investment capital flows in, the pressure to push up prices will inevitably be more dispersed than in the past. After rebounding 43% from its August low of $0.99 to recover the $1.41 level, it is still 61% lower than its cycle high of $3.65 and 63% down from its all-time high of $3.84 in January 2018.

Market experts diagnose that for XRP to regain significant bullish momentum, it must first defend the $1.41 support level and then firmly reclaim the $2 mark. With XRP having not exceeded $2 even once since January 2026, whether it breaks through $2 ahead of the November 3 mid-term elections is expected to be a crucial watershed for gauging a future challenge to the $3.65 resistance level.

[Article Summary]

-XRP surged 580% after the 2024 presidential election but has since plunged 73% from its peak and is hovering around the $1.41 mark.

-The previous rally was driven by the legal boon of the SEC lawsuit's conclusion, making it difficult to expect a similar surge from mid-term elections alone.

-With a significant increase in circulating supply, breaking the $2 resistance level is considered a prerequisite for a full trend reversal.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*