Bitcoin 'Worst September' Over, Rapid Rebound? A $126,000 Scenario Emerges

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

A forecast has emerged that the atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin (BTC) could completely change once it passes through September, historically its weakest month. Under the assumption that past monthly returns will repeat, a scenario has been presented where even if BTC drops to $75,000 in September, it could rebound in October-November and surge to $126,000.

According to The Motley Fool, an investment media outlet, on September 12 (local time), Bitcoin rose 25% last August, but looking at long-term monthly returns, September is the weakest month of the year with an average of -2.93%. This is why long-time investors call September ‘Rektember’. In contrast, October's average return is 20%, earning it the nickname ‘Uptober’, signifying strength, while November's average return is 41%, and December also recorded an average positive return of 4%.

Factors supporting an year-end rebound include easing geopolitical tensions and the potential for capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Analysis suggests that as geopolitical uncertainties subside, investors may shift back to risk assets, positively impacting ETF fund flows. Furthermore, the media explained that if pro-crypto candidates perform well in the US midterm elections, the likelihood of passing legislation favorable to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market increases, which could boost investor sentiment.

The macroeconomic environment is also a crucial variable. As institutional investors' influence on the cryptocurrency market grows, interest rates and inflation indicators have a much greater impact on BTC prices than in the past. Analysis suggests that if the overall macroeconomic outlook develops favorably for risk assets, Bitcoin could also benefit. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $77,194, with its 52-week trading range being $57,945.16 to $126,079.89.

The Motley Fool also presented a specific price scenario applying past average returns. If BTC corrects to $75,000 in September and then rises 20% in October, it could recover to $90,000. If it further rises approximately 40% in November from there, the price would reach $126,000. This is the same level as Bitcoin's all-time high recorded in October 2025.

However, past returns do not guarantee future price movements. In fact, last year, contrary to typical seasonality, Bitcoin rose in September but then declined consecutively in October, November, and December. The Motley Fool emphasized that Bitcoin rarely rises in a straight line every month even in a bull market and cautioned against high volatility. Nevertheless, if past seasonality serves as a reference, the possibility of a strong rebound towards the year-end after a weak September remains.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*