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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)/AI-generated image
Observations suggest that while $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) options expire on July 3, the market impact is likely to be limited.
According to crypto-focused media outlet CryptoPotato on July 3 (local time), approximately 31,000 Bitcoin option contracts are set to expire, with a nominal value estimated at about $1.9 billion. This expiry marks the first Bitcoin option expiry event in the second half of 2026, but its smaller scale compared to last week's large quarter-end expiry suggests it will have a limited impact on the spot market.
The put-call ratio for this Bitcoin option was 0.7, indicating a relatively higher proportion of buy positions compared to sell positions. The max pain price was around $61,000, close to the spot price. Some contracts were discussed as having the potential to become profitable at expiry.
According to Deribit, open interest is most concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, amounting to $1.1 billion. Conversely, approximately $900 million in open interest remains at the $60,000 strike price. Coinglass reported that total Bitcoin option open interest across all exchanges decreased to $26 billion after last week's large expiry, reaching a 16-month low.
Derivatives firm Greeks Live stated, “The skew in short-dated options continues to account for most of the downside premium priced into Bitcoin options.” Greeks Live added, “Option positioning is primarily driven by short-term risk management rather than a comprehensive reassessment of the long-term outlook.” This is interpreted as the market focusing more on managing short-term volatility than directional bets.
Approximately 134,000 Ethereum (ETH) options are also set to expire on the same day. Their nominal value is $228 million, with a max pain price of $1,650 and a put-call ratio of 1.3. Total Ethereum option open interest across all exchanges is approximately $3.6 billion, the lowest level since January 2023. The combined nominal value of Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto option expiries is stated to be approximately $1.8 billion.
The spot market generally showed an upward trend on Friday, with the total market capitalization rising to $2.2 trillion. Bitcoin climbed to $62,000 during Thursday's trading session after weaker-than-expected US employment figures were released, before falling back to around $61,500 on Friday morning in Asia. Ethereum rose 6% in a day, recovering to $1,700, and market activity is likely to be relatively limited given the upcoming long US weekend.
[Article Summary]
-Approximately 31,000 Bitcoin options, with a nominal value of about $1.9 billion, expire on July 3.
-The Bitcoin option max pain price is approximately $61,000, and total open interest recorded a 16-month low at $26 billion.
-Approximately 134,000 Ethereum options are also set to expire, but market activity is expected to be limited ahead of the long US weekend.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. No responsibility is assumed for investment losses based on this content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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