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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bull Market (Bull) vs Bear Market (Bear) / ChatGPT Generated Image
The Wall Street diagnosis that the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market is nearing its end has led to the re-emergence of the October bottom theory in the cryptocurrency market, which has experienced a 51% plunge.
According to crypto media outlet Cryptoprowl on July 2 (local time), Cantor Fitzgerald analyzed that the cryptocurrency market has entered the final stage of its current bear cycle. The firm suggested the possibility of a market bottom forming within the next few months, based on Bitcoin's past cycles.
Analysts including Gareth Gacetta of Cantor Fitzgerald stated in a report, “Ultimately, we believe we are only a few months away from the bottom of this correction.” As of June 10, Bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and had fallen approximately 51% from that peak. In the past three market cycles, Bitcoin formed a bottom an average of 384 days after its peak.
Applying this calculation leads to the conclusion that the current downturn could approach its low point around late October. However, Cantor Fitzgerald drew a line, stating that this model is not an accurate timing prediction tool. They explained that while macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks remain significant, the self-reinforcing nature of the cryptocurrency market means past cycles can influence investor behavior.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has continued its weakness, pressured by Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, high interest rates, and weakened risk asset appetite. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its peak in late 2025, and most Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin. In contrast, decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization sectors were cited as areas showing relative resilience.
Cantor Fitzgerald emphasized that as the market approaches an inflection point, it's crucial to look at the ability to accumulate sustainable value rather than speculative demand. They judged that token values are unlikely to be maintained long-term by simple increases in usage alone, and networks linked to actual cash flow or continuous monetary demand could become the next market leaders. Hyperliquid (HYPE), Solana (SOL), Sui (SUI), XRP, and Zcash (ZEC) were mentioned as assets that need to prove their ecosystem growth leads to token demand.
The report also evaluated that digital asset financial firms (DATs) are evolving from mere holding entities to operational businesses. Companies like Strategy (MSTR) could emerge as a link between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market, but in the latter part of a bear market, the value of their holdings and their fundraising capabilities are simultaneously put to the test. Ultimately, Cantor Fitzgerald's core message is less about optimism that winter is ending, and more focused on which networks and companies will demonstrate actual demand in the next cycle.
[Article Key Summary]
-Cantor Fitzgerald analyzed that the cryptocurrency market has entered the final stage of its bear cycle.
-As of June 10, Bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and had fallen approximately 51%.
-Applying the average of the past three cycles suggested that Bitcoin's bottom could form around late October.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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