XRP, weakest structure among major altcoins... If $1.38 collapses, risk of sharp decline

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An analysis has emerged suggesting that XRP is exhibiting the weakest technical structure among major large-cap altcoins. Despite repeatedly testing the horizontal support near $1.38, it has failed to break through the downtrend resistance line multiple times, indicating that the market structure is closer to distribution than accumulation.

U.Today reported that XRP has recently shown a compressed movement between the support level near $1.38 and the downtrend resistance line. The price attempted to rebound multiple times but was consistently blocked near the downtrend resistance. According to analysis, this repeated rejection pattern is closer to a distribution phase, where existing holdings are released into the market, rather than an accumulation phase, where strong buying pressure drives prices up.

The larger price structure is also still pointing downwards. XRP is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and all three moving averages continue to decline. While assets in a strong bull market tend to quickly recover short-term moving averages after a correction, XRP has failed to establish this trend for several months.

Recent breakout attempts also lacked conviction. Although buying pressure temporarily pushed the price up, XRP's upward momentum weakened even before reaching key resistance near the 100-day moving average. Subsequently, the price failed to continue its ascent and reverted to a sideways compression zone.

U.Today analyzed that this trend could be a typical movement preceding an increase in downside volatility if strong buying intervention does not emerge. In a downtrend, a neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) can favor sellers more than buyers, and at the same time, it can be interpreted as a sign of increasing fatigue on both sides.

Currently, the key price level is around the horizontal support. If XRP decisively loses this base, trapped long positions could unwind, leading to a rapid unfolding of the next movement. This heightens the possibility of not just a simple bearish correction, but an extended period of volatility due to a break of support.

For a bullish thesis to invalidate the bearish structure, the conditions are clear. XRP must clearly break through the downtrend line resistance with increased trading volume. Unless this condition is met, a short-term rebound is likely to be merely a temporary bounce within a larger corrective trend, rather than the start of a new, impactful upward trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*