Bitcoin, Unstable Even Above $80,000...Warning of a Drop to $42,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin's (BTC) recent price recovery may not be the start of a new bull market but rather the biggest bull trap of this cycle. NewsBTC reported on the 10th that a cryptocurrency analyst views the current Bitcoin price movement as similar in structure to the 2022 bear market, raising the possibility of a nearly 50% decline from current levels.

Analyst Chiefy observed that Bitcoin's current price movement resembles the stepwise decline structure seen in the 2022 bear market. He analyzed that the weekly candle chart shows a repeated pattern of lower highs and lower lows disguised as a recovery. Although Bitcoin surpassed $82,000 early this week and entered the vicinity of the 200-day moving average, he pointed out that this area acted as resistance during a failed recovery attempt in January 2026.

Chiefy explained that the 200-week moving average is in the lower support zone, and below it lies the 350-month moving average. He believes that if Bitcoin collapses, it would need to break below several long-term trend lines sequentially before finding a stronger bottom.

The core of this analysis is the assertion that Bitcoin's rebound into the $80,000 range is not a sustainable breakout. Chiefy characterized the current trend as the biggest bull trap of this cycle. According to his projected path, Bitcoin could sharply drop to $50,000 after leaving the $82,000 zone, then rebound to $63,000, and finally fall again to $42,000.

NewsBTC explained that in this scenario, a drop to $50,000 represents approximately a 39% correction from current levels. While a subsequent rebound to $63,000 might temporarily restore market confidence, the analysis suggests that a final descent to $42,000 would complete a nearly 50% decline from the current price.

On-chain demand indicators were also presented as bearish evidence. The media cited CryptoQuant researchers' warning that Bitcoin's apparent demand indicator remained negative throughout the April price rally. This indicator tracks changes in on-chain spot buying activity over a 30-day period. NewsBTC reported that the movement that pushed Bitcoin to $80,000 in late April and early May was mainly due to an increase in perpetual futures demand, which is similar to the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin ETF flows were also cited as a factor failing to provide a completely bullish backdrop. According to the original text, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $423.15 million over the past two days. This raises concerns that the spot demand supporting the price rebound could weaken.

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