Bitcoin breaks through $85,000 after falling to $60,000... 8-month reversal scenario activated

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT generated image

While Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $80,000 and continuing its rebound from early April, an analysis suggests it could experience significant volatility again for the remainder of the year. Crypto analyst Aralez predicted that Bitcoin could fall towards $60,000 by the end of Q2, form a bottom in Q3, and then break through $85,000 in Q4 to enter a new cycle.

NewsBTC reported on May 9th that Aralez presented Bitcoin's price trajectory for the remaining 8 months of 2026 via X (formerly Twitter). According to the article, Bitcoin is currently trading above $80,000 and has continued its rebound since early April. However, it remains approximately 37.5% below its all-time high, leading to assessments that it is still in bear market territory.

Aralez noted that while Bitcoin has risen 13% over the past month, it could retrace towards $60,000 before the current quarter ends. He analyzed that this downward trend could coincide with the S&P 500 falling below the 6,000 mark, and if macroeconomic conditions worsen, fear could spread across the broader market, rapidly deteriorating investor sentiment.

The possibility of a cycle bottom forming in Q3 was suggested. Aralez believed that selling pressure could slow down at this point, and accumulation by long-term investors might begin. However, he predicted that market confidence in Bitcoin would remain low, and investor sentiment would largely stay negative.

Macroeconomic variables were also identified as key. Aralez anticipated that the new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, could signal early interest rate cuts during Q3. While this could help restore macroeconomic confidence, a scenario was also presented where the broader financial market could still face pressure as the S&P 500 drops below the 5,900 mark during the same period.

A forecast emerged that the sentiment could shift to a recovery phase in Q4. Aralez believed that as the earlier accumulation trend is reflected in the price, Bitcoin could rise above $85,000. This period could coincide with the official start of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and an analysis suggests that easing monetary conditions and improved financial market liquidity could influence Bitcoin's recovery trend.

NewsBTC reported that this scenario holds the potential for the start of a new market cycle. Aralez envisioned that as confidence gradually recovers, institutional participation could increase again, and accumulation of risk assets might continue. At the same time, the S&P 500 is expected to stabilize around the 6,000 mark, suggesting that even if the stock market partially recovers, the overall macroeconomic environment could remain in a cautious rebuilding phase.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $80,416, having risen 1.46% in the last hour. NewsBTC reported that while Bitcoin continues its short-term rebound, Aralez's forecast presents a major trend of a re-drop to $60,000, a bottom formation in Q3, and a recovery in Q4 over the remaining 8 months.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*