Defending $1.39, Breaking $1.45, Targeting $2: Three Prices to Determine XRP's Fate

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©Go Dasol

XRP (Ripple) has simultaneously encountered three catalysts: the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, ETF supply and demand, and Bitcoin's strength, as it approaches a breakthrough of $1.45.

According to investment specialized media outlet TradingNews on May 5 (local time), XRP briefly touched $1.42 during the day before trading around $1.4068, rising approximately 2% in a day. Trading volume surged by 67% to exceed $2.3 billion, with a 7-day return of 2.04% and a 30-day return of 5.71%. Bitcoin's (BTC) surge past $81,000 also revived overall market risk appetite, contributing to XRP's rebound.

The current key battleground is the $1.39 to $1.45 range. Analysis suggests that if XRP maintains $1.39 on a closing basis, the upward structure will be preserved, but only a decisive break above $1.45 can open up targets of $1.50 and $2.20. Conversely, if $1.39 breaks down, $1.3830, $1.3550, and $1.3320 are successively mentioned as downward support levels.

On the charts, the Symmetrical Triangle pattern is considered the most important signal. If a breakthrough of $1.45 is confirmed, the target for this pattern is set at $1.90, and if the uptrend continues, a test of the psychological resistance level of $2 is also possible. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the neutral zone at 49.65, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) are not showing strong trend confirmation.

Policy variables are central to XRP's bullish scenario. The media outlet pointed out that the US Senate Banking Committee's review schedule for the CLARITY Act could be the biggest catalyst for XRP. This bill clarifies digital asset classification standards, making it a prerequisite for institutional fund inflows into XRP, given its history of litigation with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Furthermore, the weekly XRP spot ETF inflow reaching $55.39 million on April 17, the highest this year, is also raising supply and demand expectations.

However, it's not all bullish sentiment. XRP is trading below its 200-day simple moving average of $1.7883, indicating lingering long-term trend pressure. Binance's 30-day XRP liquidity index has fallen to its lowest level since 2020 at 0.038, with options open interest at $52.89 million and total derivatives open interest at approximately $2.59 billion. While thinner liquidity could lead to a larger upside if $1.45 is broken, a break below $1.39 could also rapidly accelerate declines.

Ultimately, XRP's short-term direction hinges on defending $1.39 and breaking above $1.45. The media outlet suggested that if $1.45 is surpassed, an upward path to $1.50, $1.80, $1.90, and even $2 could open up. Conversely, if it drops below $1.39, it would transition into a wait-and-see zone, and a breakdown of $1.32 would increase the likelihood of retesting $1.20 and $1.10.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*