Veteran Trader "Bitcoin, Strange Rally Underway"...Approaching $88,000 Expected

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) moves towards the $85,000 to $88,000 range, veteran trader Bob Loukas has offered an analysis suggesting that this upward trend is different from a typical bear market rally.

U.Today reported on May 5 (local time) that Loukas, in his recent Bitcoin outlook, stated that the market is currently testing the key resistance zone of $85,000 to $88,000. While many market participants see potential for a reversal in this range, Loukas assessed that Bitcoin is showing unusual resilience, differing from a typical bear market bounce.

The key variable Loukas focused on is time. Generally, counter-trend rallies in a downtrend tend to be strong and fast, ending within a short period. However, this current rise has continued for 88 days since the local low. Loukas viewed this trend as being closer to a bottoming process rather than a simple sharp rebound.

He analyzed that the current cycle might be in the process of forming a long-term cyclical low, and this structure could continue throughout 2026. He explained that the stability sustained for 88 days is a more significant signal than short-term price movements. His interpretation is that the market has shifted from a sprint to a marathon-like phase.

However, Loukas still considered the $85,000 to $88,000 range as strong resistance. He warned that this range acts as a kind of glass ceiling, and if Bitcoin fails to break through it in the short term, there is a risk of it retesting the bearish range deeply.

The market environment is sending mixed signals. On one hand, institutional funds totaling $1.16 billion have flowed into Bitcoin ETFs since May, and expectations for the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) are also growing. On the other hand, geopolitical pressures continue to weigh on risk assets, and this is complexly intertwined with the upward trend of traditional financial indices like the S&P.

Loukas argued that Bitcoin should not be viewed simply in terms of sharp rises or falls, but rather 2026 should be seen as a turning point. He analyzed that if the temporary bottom formation logic holds, the market is likely to experience a long-term sideways movement and re-accumulation phase, repeatedly testing the $60,000 to $70,000 range rather than a sharp decline.

Ultimately, Bitcoin's next turning point is whether it breaks through the $85,000 to $88,000 range. If it surpasses this range, the market could be interpreted as being in a recovery phase after forming a long-term low, but if it fails to break through, the process of confirming support within the bear market range may continue.

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