Schwartz: "XRP has over 1% chance of reaching $100"

▲ XRP/AI Generated Image

A claim that XRP has a greater than 1% chance of breaking past $100 based on its long-term technical structure has reignited debate surrounding extreme price predictions.

The Crypto Basic reported on May 5 (local time) that cryptocurrency investor and analyst Patrick L. Riley countered the skepticism of David Schwartz, former CTO of Ripple, by asserting XRP's potential to reach a three-digit price. Schwartz had previously estimated that XRP has a low probability of reaching $10,000 within the next 10 years, arguing that if reasonably wealthy investors truly believed such a forecast, XRP would already be trading around $20.

Riley believes Schwartz's cautious stance underestimates XRP's long-term price potential. He argued that XRP has a much higher than 1% chance of exceeding $100, and that the current market does not adequately reflect its long-term structural growth potential. He also brought up the instance where Schwartz previously viewed Ethereum's (ETH) potential for growth as less than 1% and subsequently sold his holdings at approximately $1.05.

Riley's argument is based on long-term technical charts. He analyzed that XRP has been moving within an ascending channel since 2014, consistently forming higher lows. XRP has repeatedly formed triangular convergence structures before major surges, a pattern observed in the 2018 cycle and the mid-2025 period, he explained.

Riley sees exponential growth potential remaining if XRP continues to follow the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel. In his scenario, XRP would need to rise by more than 7,000% to reach $100. He argues that while this doesn't mean it's an easy target, the long-term structure is strong enough to not dismiss the possibility as less than 1%.

The prediction by xAI's Grok was also mentioned as supporting data for this outlook. The Crypto Basic reported that Grok estimated XRP has approximately a 20% chance of reaching $100 within the next 10 years. This model cited Schwartz's existing view that rising XRP prices could lower settlement costs, along with the overall expansion of the virtual asset market, as key justifications.

However, conservative forecasts were also presented. The Crypto Basic reported that prediction platforms like Telegaon project XRP reaching $100 between 2041 and 2050. While Riley's analysis emphasizes a long-term upward path, Schwartz's perspective prioritizes market reality and investor behavior, clearly distinguishing the views of both sides.

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