"June and October will Explode Again"...Bitcoin, 'Midterm Election Curse' Warning

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates around $78,000, it is showing a pattern similar to the repeated bearish trends of past midterm election years, raising increased caution about further declines.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen diagnosed in a YouTube video on May 2 (local time) that the current price structure shows a high similarity to past cycles. He suggested the possibility that a major high may have already been formed in Q4 2025, based on the precedent where Bitcoin formed a high approximately 1,062 days after its low.

He particularly emphasized that the formation of a bottom around $6,000 during the 2018 midterm elections and the process of forming a low at $60,000 in 2026 show very similar trends. Looking at the seasonal patterns of midterm election years, June and October appeared as major bearish periods after February and April, and the possibility of the same pattern repeating this year has been raised.

Cowen analyzed that the higher low formed in April might not be a trend reversal but a temporary rebound. The next downward wave could intensify in June, coinciding with seasonal factors, and there is a possibility of continued formation of lower highs in the short term.

The recent rebound also showed a pattern similar to past trends. It is unfolding similarly to the 2018 trend, where a short-term rise occurred after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the upcoming labor market report could act as a variable that dampens market sentiment.

If the price fails to rebound, there is a possibility of retesting the $60,000 support level. Cowen emphasized that a recovery of the 50-week moving average is necessary to confirm the end of the downtrend. He stated that the possibility of further declines should be considered below this indicator.

Past cases also showed a recurring pattern of rebound until June, followed by forming a low again in October. With the volatility patterns of midterm election years aligning with current indicators, the market appears to have entered the same downward phase.

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