Solana Trapped at $82, Institutional Funds Move Quietly

▲ Solana (SOL) Spot ETF / ChatGPT Generated Image ©

While Solana remains suppressed in the $82 range, positive news regarding real-world asset tokenization and stablecoin approval is reviving the scenario of a breakthrough to $92.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on April 29 (local time), Solana (SOL) traded in the $82.59-$84.81 range, showing a 24-hour fluctuation of 0.78-1.5%. Its 7-day return was -5.53%, and its monthly return was -0.34%, effectively remaining in a sideways trend, with its market capitalization estimated in the late $40 billion range.

Technically, the Symmetrical Triangle pattern is key. On the short-term chart, the price is narrowing between the $84 support line and the $87 resistance line, and analysis suggests that a breakthrough of $87 with significant trading volume could lead to a rise to $90-$92. Conversely, if it fails to hold the $83-$84 support line, there's a risk of falling to $80, and if it breaks below $80, the $76-$77 range is presented as the next support level.

However, the moving average structure remains a burden. SOL is trading below its 20-day simple moving average of $85.47, its 50-day simple moving average of $85.90, and its 200-day simple moving average of $120.10. The Relative Strength Index is near neutral at 46.23-48, and while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed weak buy signals in some areas, short-term momentum has slowed. The Average Directional Index is also low, indicating a lack of a clear trend.

Fundamentals are moving stronger than the price. Solana's Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization ecosystem has reached an all-time high of $2.5 billion, and its holders, approximately 200,000, have surpassed Ethereum's. Over 90% of non-stablecoin real-world assets are tokenized US Treasury bonds, and recently, $3.25 billion worth of new USD Coin (USDC) was issued on the Solana network. The Israeli regulatory authority's approval for the limited launch of the Solana-based BILS stablecoin after a two-year pilot program was also mentioned as a sign of institutional validation.

Institutional demand and enhanced security also underpinned long-term expectations. Amid multiple Solana ETF applications, approximately 7% of the total SOL circulating supply is tied up in ETFs and digital asset products, with the potential to increase to 15-20% in the future. However, the issue of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously classifying SOL as a security remains an uncertainty in the approval pathway. The Solana Foundation is also strengthening its security infrastructure for institutional fund inflows by launching Falcon, a quantum computing risk testing system, and STRIDE, a DeFi threat monitoring program.

The media outlet stated that a bullish bias could be maintained above $80, but a clear buy signal would be more evident after confirmation of a break above $87. As Bitcoin (BTC) is constrained between $75,737 and $77,000 by Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions and geopolitical uncertainties, SOL's short-term movement is also seen as dependent on Bitcoin's direction and whether it breaks above $87, rather than a standalone rise.

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