Fed's 'Hawkish Freeze' Aftermath... Can Upbit Bitcoin Defend the 113 Million Won Line?

Coin Market Crushed by Fed's 'Hawkish Freeze'... Upbit Bitcoin's Unstable Recovery Amid Altcoin Weakness

▲ Powell, Upbit, Bitcoin/AI Generated Image

The virtual asset market is facing heavy downward pressure due to the hawkish (preferring monetary tightening) benchmark interest rate freeze by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) coupled with escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Bitcoin is attempting a slight recovery after yesterday's sharp drop, but it seems unable to find clear rebound momentum due to macroeconomic uncertainties weighing on the overall market.

As of 7:05 AM on the 30th, Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, is trading at 113.87 million KRW on Upbit's KRW market, up 0.38% from the previous day, testing its support line after a sharp drop. In contrast, major altcoins are universally flashing red, unable to escape weakness. Ethereum (ETH) is down 0.62% to 3.379 million KRW, XRP (Ripple) is down 0.10% to 2,049 KRW, and Solana (SOL) has fallen 0.48% to 124,200 KRW. However, the meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing a localized rebound, trading at 155 KRW, up 4.73%.

Amidst such sharp fluctuations and an unstable market, investor turnover in response to short-term volatility has become more active. According to CoinGecko data, a global virtual asset market aggregator, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume increased slightly by 3.9% compared to the previous day at the same time, indicating intense buying and selling even in a declining market.

The biggest negative factor hitting the crypto market is the delay in the Fed's monetary policy direction and the re-ignition of inflation fears. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded on the 29th (local time), the Fed froze the benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75% as expected by the market. However, three internal members voted against including the phrase 'easing bias' in the policy statement, showing strong resistance to interest rate cuts and dampening market expectations.

Adding to this, the news that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a long-term maritime blockade to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear program also dealt a fatal blow, causing international oil prices to surge. Concerns that energy supply disruptions would be prolonged sent Brent crude to its highest level since 2022, directly fueling fears of prolonged inflation in the U.S. and pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.42%.

Market experts predict that major virtual assets on Upbit, including Bitcoin, will continue to see sluggish sideways movement and a declining trend for the time being. This is because monetary policy uncertainty has reached its peak ahead of the Fed's leadership transition, and the interest rate futures market has completely abandoned expectations for an interest rate cut within the year, instead beginning to price in a 12% probability of an interest rate hike in December. Unless geopolitical risks ease or big tech companies announce overwhelmingly strong earnings that exceed expectations, risk-averse sentiment is likely to heavily weigh on the crypto market for the foreseeable future.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*