"Whales 'Pause' as Retail Investors Cheer"...When Will Bitcoin Break $80,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break out in price, hindered by strong selling pressure from on-chain indicators and excessive optimism, just ahead of the psychological resistance level of $80,000.

Cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist provided an in-depth analysis of the reasons behind Bitcoin's failure to break $80,000, based on on-chain data, in its report on April 26 (local time). Bitcoin surpassed $79,000 on April 22, reaching a three-month high, but has since lost upward momentum and is trading sideways. Market analysts point to the resistance of the True Market Mean Price as the primary cause of price stagnation. This indicator represents the average purchase price of active participants, excluding dormant coins and miner profits. Currently, this figure acts as a strong technical resistance level, inhibiting further upward movement.

Joao Wedson, CEO and founder of Alphractal, noted that Bitcoin's price has not been able to surpass the True Market Mean Price. Wedson explained that while this indicator served as strong support at the end of 2025, it is currently a barrier preventing further ascent. He emphasized, "Even if the price breaks this indicator, a stabilization confirmation process of at least three days is required." He also warned that if a decisive breakthrough fails, bearish forces will regain market dominance. An analysis suggests that a rapid surge without technical stabilization could lead to a significant correction.

Excessive FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among investors is also cited as a reason for price stagnation. According to Santiment data, as Bitcoin approached $80,000, the market entered a state of extreme euphoria. On-chain analysis firms interpret the market's excessive optimism as a warning sign, as prices tend to move in the opposite direction when public sentiment is overly positive. Santiment diagnosed, "Only when optimism calms down slightly will a breakthrough of $80,000 be possible." This suggests that the current state of euphoria must dissipate first.

Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating at around $77,588. While institutional buying remains active, upward pressure has weakened due to a slowdown in retail investor follow-up purchases. Open interest remains high, indicating a persistent possibility of increased volatility. Market participants believe that new buying capital is needed for Bitcoin to overcome the technical hurdle of the True Market Mean Price. The analysis suggests that conquering the $80,000 mark is only possible if both technical resistance and psychological overheating are resolved simultaneously.

The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently undergoing a technical correction ahead of the historic $80,000 milestone. Real liquidity flows and changes in investor sentiment are expected to be decisive variables for future price movements. Experts recommend focusing on the intrinsic price support and resistance levels shown by on-chain data, rather than being swayed by short-term volatility. A large-scale upward wave is anticipated once market overheating subsides and technical indicators stabilize.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*