US crypto bill's chance of passing this year plummets to 50%... "If it passes May, it's virtually over"

▲ Financial market regulation/ChatGPT generated image

The U.S. Senate's decision to postpone the deliberation schedule for the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, aimed at clarifying virtual asset regulations, to the end of May, has put the bill's chances of passing this year at risk of being halved.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGafe on April 22 (local time), virtual asset investment firm Galaxy Digital has significantly lowered the probability of the U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill (CLARITY) being legislated by 2026 from the original 82% to 50%. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, diagnosed that legislative momentum is rapidly weakening due to the Senate's tight schedule and political interests. In Polymarket, a prediction market, the bill's passage probability has also dropped to 47%, supporting the market's pessimistic outlook.

The delay in the Senate's schedule is attributed to a pile-up of national issues, such as the Iranian military aid bill and the Department of Homeland Security budget bill. Thorn predicted that if the Senate deliberation extends beyond mid-May, it would be virtually impossible to process the bill within the year due to a lack of physical time. Especially as the country enters the midterm election phase scheduled for November, all congressional discussions will shift to an election footing, likely pushing legislative procedures to the back burner. If the House majority status changes as a result of the election, the bill would face the situation of having to be discussed again from scratch.

The gap between regulatory agencies and the industry over the bill's detailed issues also remains unbridged. There is strong opposition from the financial sector regarding the compensation system for stablecoin issuance and the provision to exclude software developers who do not provide custody functions from regulation. The issue of adjusting regulatory jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also remains unresolved. These internal conflicts are lowering the completeness of the bill and hindering lawmakers from reaching a consensus.

The bill passed the House in July 2025 with an overwhelming majority, including the support of 78 Democratic members, confirming bipartisan support. In the Senate, with a structure of 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic seats, cooperation from at least 7 to 10 Democratic senators is essential. The virtual asset industry earnestly desires the passage of this bill to attract institutional investors by securing regulatory clarity. This is why the entire market, including Bitcoin (BTC), considers establishing a legal foundation for institutional integration as a top priority.

Galaxy Digital explained that a vote in a full Senate session in July is theoretically the last possible opportunity. This would require strong political will within Congress and coordination between parties. The fate of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill depends on the speed of discussions in the Senate standing committees over the next few weeks. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of legislative delays on investment sentiment and supply and demand in the virtual asset market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and is not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*