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Will Upbit Bitcoin Fall to the 110 Million Won Range? Coin Market Faces 'Cold Wind' Again Amid US-Iran Standoff
▲ Upbit Market Conditions: Why Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum Stalled Together, Is It a Simple Correction or a Directional Change?/AI Generated Image ©
As the confrontation between the US and Iran prolongs, the virtual asset market has once again entered a risk-off phase. Amid rising international oil prices and soaring US Treasury yields simultaneously pressuring the New York stock market and virtual assets, Bitcoin (BTC) on Upbit, the nation's No. 1 virtual asset exchange, also fell to the 112 million won range, moving further away from the 120 million won mark. However, even as the overall market shows weakness, buying interest has concentrated on some altcoins, making differentiation among assets more pronounced.
According to Upbit at 10:26 AM on the 29th, Bitcoin was trading at 112.64 million won, down 0.76% from the previous day. XRP recorded 2,009 won, down 1.08%; Ethereum (ETH) recorded 3.621 million won, down 0.85%; and Stellar Lumens (XLM) recorded 307 won, down 2.54%. The Upbit Composite Index fell 0.76%, the Altcoin Index fell 1.05%, the Upbit10 Index fell 0.90%, and the Upbit30 Index fell 0.88%, indicating that weakness has spread across not only large-cap coins but also altcoins in general. In contrast, MultiversX (EGLD) rose 10.22%, and on a weekly basis, some assets like Ark (ARK) with 51.89%, SOON with 45.56%, and Definitive (EDGE) with 42.34% continued their strong upward trend regardless of market movements.
The backdrop of the market downturn is the escalating tension between the US and Iran, leading to rising oil prices and Treasury yields. After US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal, international oil prices surged again, and the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%. On the 28th, in the New York stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.67%, the S&P 500 by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq by 0.92%. The rise in oil prices is fueling inflation concerns and the possibility of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), creating pressure on risk assets such as stocks and virtual assets.
Within the virtual asset market, Bitcoin's weakness and liquidation of leveraged positions exacerbated the decline. According to CoinMarketCap's market analysis, the total virtual asset market capitalization decreased by 1.5% over 24 hours, reaching $2.84 trillion. As Bitcoin dominance reached 58.61%, the drop in BTC dragged down the entire market, and profit-taking also occurred in altcoins that had recently surged. Near Protocol (NEAR) fell 10.08% after a 156% rise over one month, and Quant (QNT) dropped 25.42% after a 268% surge. In the derivatives market, open interest increased by 20.3%, while Bitcoin liquidations surged by 178% to $106.53 million, indicating that the unwinding of excessive leverage acted as additional selling pressure. CoinDesk also pointed to high oil prices, Treasury yields, profit-taking, and large-scale liquidations as key factors behind the recent Bitcoin correction.
Contrary to the price decline, domestic investment fervor appears to be reviving. According to Upbit Datalab at the same time, the 24-hour trading volume increased by 33.05% from the previous day to 2.47 trillion won, and the daily trading volume recorded 2.1434 trillion won. XRP maintained its top position in trading volume share at 10.91%, followed by Ondo Finance (ONDO) at 6.58%, Bitcoin at 5.27%, Stellar Lumens at 4.43%, and Hedera (HBAR) at 4.10%. The fact that XRP saw the most trading volume and the total exchange trading volume increased even amidst price weakness suggests that investors are actively responding, focusing on assets with increased volatility rather than exiting the market.
The key for the market this week is whether the total virtual asset market capitalization holds at $2.8 trillion to $2.85 trillion, along with US economic indicators. CoinMarketCap analyzed that if the $2.8 trillion level is maintained, short-term consolidation could continue, but if this price level breaks, the downside risk could increase to $2.76 trillion, and further to $2.65 trillion in case of additional correction. In particular, this week's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and employment report are scheduled, which, combined with rising oil prices, could once again shake interest rate expectations. According to CoinDesk, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 5.23%. If Bitcoin fails to stabilize and Treasury yields and oil prices rise further, the domestic market is also likely to continue in an unstable phase where weakness in large-cap coins coexists with short-term surges in some altcoins.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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