Bitcoin (BTC), 4-year cycle theory 'collapses'...Will a $390,000 super bull market open?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

The traditional 4-year cycle theory is losing its power. With the full-scale expansion of the macroeconomic business cycle, an analysis suggests that Bitcoin has entered the beginning of an unprecedented super bull market.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, analyzed in a video uploaded on September 26 (local time) that Bitcoin's (BTC) true bull market has not even begun yet, and an explosive rally, potentially soaring up to $390,000, could unfold in conjunction with the economic expansion phase.

Gambardello stated, "The trend from 2022 to the peak in 2025 was merely a rebound, not a major bull market supported by an economic expansion environment. Now, with the contraction of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the end of the longest-ever quantitative tightening (QT), and the start of economic expansion, is the time for a super-large bull market like those in 2020 or 2017 to form."

He cited the relative ratio of copper and gold, and the Russell 2000 index bottoming out and rebounding in line with economic recovery signals, as decisive evidence of macroeconomic expansion. The diagnosis is that since all risk assets are reacting precisely to the economic expansion cycle, the cryptocurrency market, located at the furthest end of the risk curve, is bound to follow the same trajectory. The price adjustment that occurred after the official end of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) quantitative tightening in December 2025 is a normalization phase observed in past cycles, and he predicted that a 1990s-style productivity explosion, intertwined with artificial intelligence (AI) and institutional adoption, would now unfold.

In terms of technical structural analysis, he presented long-term target price levels based on an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. Gambardello proposed a target price range of $137,000 to $390,000, calculated based on Bitcoin's price fluctuation from $15,000 to $74,000. He explained that even if the economic expansion is short-lived, a simple price range calculation could lead to $137,000, and if a massive productivity revolution like that of the 1990s materializes, it could surge vertically to the pattern target of $390,000.

However, he pointed out that in the short-term price flow, downward divergences are observed in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart, warning of volatility. If sell-offs near the short-term resistance level persist, there is a possibility of sideways movement between the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement line or a short-term pullback. Downside support levels are positioned at the 20-day moving average of $80,000, the 50-day moving average of $75,000, and the 200-day moving average of $70,000, with the Fibonacci 78.6% to 61.8% retracement level of $63,000 to $69,000 set as extreme correction support levels.

Gambardello emphasized that even amid short-term fluctuations, if the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern is completed, reclaiming the previous high of $120,000 would be the primary target. He diagnosed that while risk management must be performed by monitoring macroeconomic liquidity indicators and proprietary business cycle models, Bitcoin's structural upward momentum, coupled with cyclical economic expansion, has already firmly set sail.

[Article Summary]

-Dan Gambardello stated that Bitcoin has entered its largest bull market since 2020, driven by the end of quantitative tightening and the expansion of the business cycle.

-Based on the inverse head and shoulders structure and a 1990s-style productivity boom, he presented a long-term upward target price for Bitcoin ranging from $137,000 to $390,000.

-He assessed that although short-term auxiliary indicators show downward divergence, which could lead to fluctuations around $80,000, the overall upward trend towards breaking $120,000 remains valid.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*