Institutions Bought $2.39 Billion, But Bitcoin Falls… Is '5% Treasury Yield' Holding It Back?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©CoinReaders

Bitcoin (BTC) rose over 4% last week but has slipped below $82,800, indicating a slowdown in upward momentum. While $2.39 billion, the largest inflow since October 2025, flowed into spot ETFs, the rising US Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) prospect of further tightening are clashing, making the defense of the $80,000 level a key short-term variable.

According to investment publication FXStreet on September 28 (local time), Bitcoin traded at approximately $82,779 that day, giving back some of its gains from the previous week. In contrast, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.39 billion last week, marking the largest weekly net inflow since October 2025. SoSoValue data showed that institutional investment demand continues to support Bitcoin's price.

However, high US Treasury yields and the prospect of further interest rate hikes are limiting the upward trend. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, analyzed that Bitcoin's recent pullback from its highs indicates weakening upward momentum amidst persistently high Treasury yields. He explained that if Treasury yields exceed 5% and expectations for further rate hikes strengthen, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin increases, potentially leading more investors to take profits after a sharp rise.

This week, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Nonfarm Payrolls are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, respectively. Massabni predicted that if economic indicators slow down and ETF inflows expand, Bitcoin could retest the $87,000-$90,000 range. Conversely, if inflation persists and ETF inflows weaken, he suggested the possibility of a dip below $80,000.

Technically, a short-term bullish structure is being maintained despite the correction. BTC is trading above all its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are formed between approximately $73,900 and $77,300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, not yet entering the overbought zone, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, though upward pressure has slowed. On the upside, $85,000 is presented as the first major resistance level.

In case of a decline, the 50-day EMA at $77,292 serves as the first major support level, while the 100-day EMA at $73,915 and the 200-day EMA at $74,245 form a broader demand zone. Should the correction deepen, $66,500 and $62,300 are presented as additional support levels. This week, whether strong ETF inflows continue and how key US economic indicators affect the Fed's outlook for further tightening are cited as crucial variables that will determine Bitcoin's ability to defend $80,000 and re-break $85,000.

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