Bitcoin (BTC) breaks through 50-week MA in 45 weeks... Is the bear market officially over?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has closed its weekly candle above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. This has triggered a technical signal that it has passed the bear market bottom by breaking through a long-term resistance line that it had been under for nearly a year.

According to U.Today, a virtual asset media outlet, on September 21 (local time), Bitcoin closed its weekly trading at $81,159 for the week ending September 20. According to a chart shared by Galaxy Research, Bitcoin's current 50-week moving average is around $78,786. It has been 45 weeks since Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above this indicator, specifically since November 9, 2025.

The 50-week moving average is the average of weekly closing prices over approximately one year and is considered a key indicator for assessing the health of long-term market structure. In previous long-term bull markets, Bitcoin typically stayed above this line, but in bear market phases, it acted as a strong overhead resistance. Galaxy Research pointed out that severe price corrections followed whenever this line was given up.

Historical data also interprets this breakout as a positive signal. In four out of the five past Bitcoin bear markets that broke below the 50-week moving average, the final cycle bottom formed just before reclaiming that indicator. Out of 13 instances where the 50-week moving average was broken upwards during a bear market, only two cases saw a new low deeper than the previous low thereafter.

However, there are also exceptional cases, such as during the 2021-2022 downturn, where the 50-week moving average was temporarily recovered twice, but the bear market did not end. Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 36% below its all-time high of about $126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin defends the approximately $79,000 level while the 50-week moving average flattens or gently slopes, the existing strong resistance line could turn into a support line.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $81,159, reclaiming the 50-week moving average ($78,786) for the first time in 45 weeks.

-Out of 13 past instances of reclaiming the 50-week MA during a bear market, 11 confirmed a bottom without hitting further lows.

-If the $79,000 support level is stably maintained, the long-term resistance line could fully transform into a support line.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*