Tesla (TSLA), Q3 Deliveries 'Cut' by 11%...Goldman Sachs Sharply Lowers Outlook

▲ Tesla

Tesla (TSLA)'s Q3 vehicle delivery forecast has been sharply lowered from 490,000 units to 435,000 units.

According to StockTwits on September 16 (local time), Goldman Sachs lowered its Q3 vehicle delivery forecast for Tesla from the previous 490,000 units to 435,000 units. It maintained a "Neutral" investment rating and set a target price of $360. The new forecast falls short of the market consensus of 456,000 units compiled by Visible Alpha.

The background for the lowered outlook is weak sales in the United States, China, and Europe. Goldman Sachs diagnosed that Tesla's sales performance in major markets was weaker than previously expected. In contrast, Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia are showing year-over-year growth. It is expected that export volumes supplied from the Chinese factory will partially offset the sluggishness in major markets.

Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2. Among these, Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 467,762 units. Q1 deliveries were 358,023 units. If Goldman Sachs' new forecast holds, Q3 deliveries would decrease by approximately 9% compared to the previous quarter. In China, 126,157 units were delivered in Q2, a decrease of approximately 2% year-over-year but an increase of approximately 12% from Q1.

Regulatory burdens surrounding the autonomous driving business also continue. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reportedly demanded that Tesla respond to inquiries regarding the Cybercab certification process by September 30. The use of temporary human control devices during the certification process was also included in the inquiries. Citizens analyst Andrew Boone maintained a "Market Perform" rating. He explained that the autonomous driving industry is raising questions about the safety and technical aspects of Tesla's camera-only approach.

Tesla's stock price has fallen by over 18% since the beginning of 2026, showing the weakest performance among the so-called Magnificent Seven. Goldman Sachs' lowered outlook reflects the judgment that growth in export markets alone will not be able to offset slowing sales in the United States, China, and Europe.

[Key Article Summary]

-Goldman Sachs lowered Tesla's Q3 delivery forecast from 490,000 units to 435,000 units.

-The new forecast is below the market consensus of 456,000 units and represents an approximately 9% decrease from Q2.

-Weak sales in the United States, China, and Europe were identified as the main reasons for the lowered outlook.

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