Gold price, preparing for a 1974 decalcomania big rebound?...Benjamin Cowen: "30% correction is an opportunity"

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Although gold has undergone a correction of about 30% since its peak at the beginning of the year, a forecast has emerged that the long-term bull market is not over, but rather there is a possibility of a rebound after forming a higher low in September-October.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen, in a video released on his YouTube channel on September 15 (local time), assessed the 2026 gold market as a correction phase within a long-term uptrend. He explained that analyzing past US midterm election years shows a recurring pattern where gold rises at the beginning of the year, corrects until summer, and then rebounds. He pointed out that the average low in past midterm election years was around July 6, and this year's low also formed in the week including June 29.

The comparison Cowen focused most on was 1974. At that time, gold recorded a high at the beginning of the year, then fell by about 30% until summer, and then re-established a bottom at a price higher than the previous low in September. After that, it rebounded by about 50% by the end of the year, setting a new all-time high. He suggested the possibility of a similar seasonal trend appearing this year but drew a line, saying, “It doesn't necessarily have to lead to the same result.”

He did not rule out the possibility of further declines. In 2018 and 2022, there were cases where gold's low was delayed until September-October. However, Cowen noted that gold had already rebounded near the long-term bull market support zone, consisting of the 20-month simple moving average and the 21-month exponential moving average. He stated that a new low could form between now and mid-October, but he leaned towards the possibility of forming a higher low rather than breaking the summer low.

As short-term pressure factors, he pointed to the strong dollar and the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Cowen analyzed that if inflation stimulates the Fed's interest rate hikes, the dollar could turn strong, and gold might be reflecting this movement in advance. He said, “I believe gold is pricing in a future dollar rally,” suggesting that when the actual dollar rally begins, gold's low might have already formed or be imminent.

He set mid-2027 as the time to judge whether the long-term uptrend has ended. Cowen explained that to determine if a long-term peak has formed, similar to 2011, a trend where gold fails to recover its previous all-time high for a considerable period must be observed. He stated that if a new all-time high is not made by mid-2027, he would re-evaluate his existing forecast, but until then, he would maintain the upward patterns of 1974 and past midterm election years as the main scenarios.

[Article Key Summary]

-Cowen analyzed that although gold has undergone about a 30% correction, it is more likely to form a higher low in September-October rather than the long-term uptrend having ended.

-In 1974, gold fell by about 30%, formed a summer low, and then surged by about 50% by the end of the year, setting a new all-time high.

-While a strong dollar and Fed interest rate hikes are short-term burdens, the long-term peak possibility can only be re-evaluated if gold fails to recover its all-time high by mid-2027.

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