Will Bitcoin Short-Term Holders' Supply Flood Out? 549,300 Units Moved to Exchanges

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) ©CoinReaders

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding onto most of its gains, supported by strong inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, despite large-scale movements by short-term holders to exchanges. While net ETF inflows over the past 30 days have increased to $21.9 billion, short-term holders have moved 549,300 BTC to exchanges since August 19, indicating a standoff between institutional buying pressure and potential profit-taking pressure.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 10 (local time), CryptoQuant analyzed that net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past 30 days reached $21.9 billion, indicating a significant improvement in capital flow. The realized price for ETF investors was estimated to be around $72,000-$73,000, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio recorded approximately 1.07. An MVRV above 1 means that, based on the current price, that group of investors is in an unrealized profit zone.

However, an analysis also suggested that the net inflow of $21.9 billion needs to be viewed with caution. According to CryptoQuant, approximately 90% of the current 30-day net inflows were concentrated between August 17-21, when Bitcoin rose from the low $60,000s towards $80,000. It was explained that if this period begins to fall out of the 30-day aggregation window, the cumulative 30-day net inflow figure could significantly decrease even without new selling pressure.

While ETF demand improved, potential profit-taking was observed in the movements of short-term holders. According to Axel Adler, a CryptoQuant contributor, 549,300 BTC held for up to six months have moved to exchanges since August 19. While exchange deposits are generally interpreted as potential selling movements, Adler emphasized that this does not mean all this supply has led to actual sales. However, it was analyzed that short-term holders are mainly realizing profits as their profitability is above the break-even point.

Bitcoin has absorbed such potential selling pressure relatively stably. After recently rising to $81,800, the correction was limited to 4.1%, maintaining most of August's gains. Adler diagnosed that if the price consistently stays above $81,800 while short-term holders' profitability is maintained, bullish signals could strengthen. Conversely, he explained that if exchange inflows increase simultaneously with a price drop, it could signal a weakening of the market's ability to absorb selling pressure.

Currently, Bitcoin is at $77,100, down 2% over a 24-hour period. Ultimately, in the short term, the key question is how much of the short-term holders' profit-taking supply the market can absorb. While sustained inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and a stable break above $81,800 could strengthen the bullish trend, an analysis suggests that if increased exchange inflows and price drops occur simultaneously, vigilance regarding supply pressure could heighten.

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