Upbit also 'feels the chill' as US stock market drops for fourth consecutive day... Bitcoin's 105 million won fate hangs on CPI

Even with increased Upbit trading volume, it remains in the 1 trillion won range... Bitcoin's 105 million won line is precarious, 'chill wind' returns to the coin market

▲Upbit also 'feels the chill' as US stock market drops for fourth consecutive day... Bitcoin's 105 million won fate hangs on CPI/AI generated image ©

As surging international oil prices and soaring US Treasury yields put pressure on global risk assets, the domestic virtual asset market has also contracted again. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the 105 million won mark during intraday trading, and both the Upbit Composite Index and Altcoin Index declined. Although some altcoins surged by double digits, creating a selective market, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume only slightly increased to 1.69 trillion won, making it difficult to say that overall buying sentiment in the market has revived.

According to Upbit at 7:20 AM on the 11th, Bitcoin traded at 105,451,000 won, down 0.89% from the previous day. The intraday low was 104,897,000 won, temporarily falling below the 105 million won mark. The Upbit Composite Index fell by 0.68% to 10,756.94, and the Upbit Altcoin Index fell by 0.71% to 2,895.06. The Bitcoin Group Index also dropped by 0.92%, while the Ethereum Group rose by 0.13%, showing varying performances across different assets.

Macroeconomics once again stood at the center of the downward pressure. In the New York stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.60%, the S&P 500 Index by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index by 0.65%, continuing their weakness for four consecutive days. With inflation concerns reigniting due to surging international oil prices, the US 10-year Treasury yield soared to around 4.95%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose 5.4% year-over-year, and the market's expectation for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike next week also increased to about 70%. The concern of high interest rates, unfavorable to risk assets, simultaneously weighed down both stocks and virtual assets.

In the domestic market, contrary to the index decline, short-term funds flowed into some altcoins. On a weekly basis, Raydium rose 68.57%, Falcon Finance 65.71%, IOST 64.29%, FLOKI 55.60%, and VTHO Token 51.55%. On the same day, VTHO Token surged 40.27%, SuperForm 24.10%, Blast 15.82%, and Raydium 14.50%, showing rapid gains in specific assets. Conversely, BiFi dropped 12.62%, IOST 41.18%, and Katana 21.33%, indicating high volatility. Rather than a market where all assets rise together, a rotational trading pattern where funds quickly move between specific assets was prominent.

Trading volume also rebounded but still remained in the 1 trillion won range. According to Upbit Datalab, as of 7:20 AM, the 24-hour trading volume was 1.69 trillion won, a 4.23% increase from the previous day, and the daily trading volume recorded 1.6 trillion won. The breakdown of 24-hour trading volume was VTHO Token 10.60%, BiFi 7.68%, XRP (Ripple) 7.41%, Tether (USDT) 5.71%, and Bitcoin 5.60%. Despite a slight recovery in trading volume, considering that the top positions are concentrated in rapidly fluctuating altcoins, this trend is closer to a short-term asset-specific market rather than a recovery in overall market sentiment.

The biggest remaining variable this week is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the CPI comes out strong, with rising international oil prices and PPI already raising inflation concerns, Treasury yields and interest rate hike expectations could further increase, putting pressure on virtual assets including Bitcoin. Conversely, if inflationary pressures are weaker than expected, there is room for the recently heightened interest rate concerns to ease. As both the New York stock market and the crypto market are highly sensitive to interest rates, the domestic market's turning point for investor sentiment will likely depend on whether Bitcoin can defend the 105 million won line and whether trading volume meaningfully recovers from the 1 trillion won range for the time being.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*