to leave a comment.
▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image
The US manufacturing business index of 55 has been identified as the next turning point for the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market.
Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, highlighted the recent ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 54.6 in a video uploaded on September 1st (local time). Gambardello explained that while a reading above 50 is generally seen as economic expansion, past periods where the cryptocurrency bull market accelerated saw a breakthrough of 55. He stated, "I want to see a strong move above the 55 line." His analysis suggests that in both 2017 and 2020, the crypto market surged strongly after the PMI surpassed 55.
Gambardello's self-developed CCV Business Cycle Index also points in a similar direction. This index reflects manufacturing data from five regions: Philadelphia, New York, Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City. It recorded 53.7 in July and 55.2 in August. Gambardello considers an economic expansion phase to be confirmed only when readings above 51 are sustained for three consecutive months. If September also surpasses 51, the expansion signal will be complete according to his own criteria.
In the altcoin market, he emphasized the intertwined nature of the economic cycle and long-term sideways movement. Gambardello observed that economic expansion had not been significant for the past 5-6 years, and altcoins also underwent a long period of adjustment during the same time. He also cited periods where quantitative tightening (QT) overlapped with a cryptocurrency bear market as evidence. He argued that if economic expansion truly begins, a strong upward environment could be created for the altcoin market, which has been suppressed for a long time.
The potential for up to 20% growth, mentioned by former US President Donald Trump, was also discussed in the video. Gambardello explained that if growth rates of 14-16% or 20% were to materialize, a strong boom across both manufacturing and service industries would be necessary. However, he believed that even without such extreme growth rates, a general economic expansion alone could form a cryptocurrency bull market. The 20% growth scenario was presented as a hypothetical economic environment that cryptocurrency has not experienced before.
Variables include oil prices, the situation in Iran, and the policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Gambardello cautioned against the possibility that external shocks could slow the pace of growth just as economic expansion begins. He emphasized that statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Fed's policy direction should also be closely monitored. He did not present his outlook as a definitive conclusion. Gambardello stressed, "You must manage risk by considering the possibility that all judgments may be wrong," and emphasized that confirming September's economic indicators is paramount.
[Key Article Summary]
-Gambardello presented the ISM Manufacturing PMI surpassing 55 as a key signal for the cryptocurrency bull market to truly begin.
-His self-developed CCV Business Cycle Index recorded 53.7 in July and 55.2 in August, and if September also exceeds 51, it will meet the condition for three consecutive months of expansion.
-Oil prices, the situation in Iran, and Fed policy were cited as major variables that could affect the economic expansion and cryptocurrency bull market scenarios.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.