Exchange Trading Volume Plummets…Is the End of the Crypto Bear Market in Sight?

▲ Cryptocurrency ©

While the sharp decline in trading volume on major cryptocurrency exchanges could signal the end of a bear market, as it has in the past, the rise of decentralized trading and derivatives is shaking up traditional market formulas.

According to investment media The Motley Fool on August 9 (local time), the spot cryptocurrency trading volume of the world's top 17 centralized exchanges (CEXs) in Q2 2026 was tallied at $2.3 trillion. This is a 25.8% decrease from $3.1 trillion in Q1, and a sharp 63.5% drop compared to the all-time high of $6.3 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.

In the past, a decrease in spot trading volume was considered a typical sign of investors exiting the market and the tail end of a bear market. After trading volumes declined for several months and formed a bottom, the market would gradually recover. However, recent analyses suggest that the current decline reflects not only a contraction in investor sentiment but also a shift in trading activity from centralized exchanges to decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

The proportion of on-chain transactions in total spot trading mostly remained below 10% in 2024 but rose to an all-time high of approximately 24% in July 2026. Solana (SOL)-based decentralized exchanges recorded a June trading volume of $50.8 billion, significantly surpassing Ethereum (ETH)'s $29.4 billion. This makes it difficult to assess market vitality solely based on the trading volume of centralized exchanges.

The shift in the center of trading from spot to derivatives has also weakened the significance of traditional indicators. The perpetual futures trading volume of the top 10 centralized exchanges reached $12.7 trillion in Q2. Even during a period when spot trading volume significantly decreased, perpetual futures trading volume only dropped by about 10%, indicating a shift in investor demand towards the derivatives market.

The scope of tradable assets is also expanding from coins to tokenized stocks. The trading volume of tokenized stocks in Q1 2026 was $15.1 billion, surpassing the total trading volume of $14.8 billion in H2 2025. This unprecedented structural change, where both trading venues and products are shifting simultaneously, makes it difficult to determine market phases solely based on past trading volume indicators, but if the total volume of blockchain-based transactions increases, transaction fees and activity within the ecosystem can also expand. Based on this premise, the media suggested that the end of the bear market might historically be drawing near.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*