Benjamin Cowen: "Gold to bottom from June to October, then rebound next year"

▲ Gold/AI-generated image

An analysis suggests that although gold has fallen by about 30% from its peak, the long-term bull market is not over.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse and a veteran trader, evaluated the recent weakness in gold prices as a normal correction in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on August 6 (local time). Cowen stated, “We cannot turn bearish on gold now.” He added, “I believe a rebound will appear at least once in the near future.” Gold has fallen by about 30% from its peak. In past bull markets, there have been repeated instances of a sustained uptrend after a 20-30% correction.

Cowen presented the 20-month simple moving average and the 21-month exponential moving average as key indicators for determining gold's long-term trend. The bull market support zone, composed of these two indicators, was tested multiple times in the 1970s and 2000s. Although gold prices sometimes fell below the support zone, the long-term upward trend continued. Cowen explained that since gold moves slower than stocks or cryptocurrencies, it should be viewed with a focus on long-term moving averages.

Gold's year-to-date performance in 2026 resembles the trends of 2018 and 2022. While the initial rise this year was larger than in the past, subsequent movements are similar to those two years. Averaging past US midterm election years, gold formed a bottom around early July. Cowen suggested that June to October would be the key bottoming period for this year. If the 2022 trend repeats, there could be a rebound until mid-August, followed by another period of weakness.

A variable for additional correction is a strong dollar. Cowen diagnosed that the dollar's movement in 2026 shows a gentle upward trend similar to 2018. If the dollar rises again in the next one to two months, gold prices could be pressured. However, he did not definitively state whether it would fall below the previous low or form a higher low. He also suggested the possibility that gold might decline before the stock market and form a bottom earlier.

Cowen interpreted the 2026 correction as a large sideways consolidation process for a long-term uptrend. He also saw a possibility that gold could resume its ascent without falling to the bull market support zone. In the year before past US presidential elections, the average gold return was approximately 13%. Cowen predicted that gold could consolidate a bottom for the remainder of this year and then resume its upward trend in 2027. He also suggested the possibility of another significant rally in the late 2020s.

[Article Summary]

-Benjamin Cowen analyzed that gold, having fallen by about 30% from its peak, is undergoing a normal correction within a long-term bull market.

-Based on past midterm election year trends, he suggested June to October as the key bottoming period for gold.

-The outlook is that gold could consolidate a bottom this year and then resume its ascent in 2027.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*