Bitcoin to surpass $1 million in 2030, is it realistically possible?

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While there are continuous predictions that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million by 2030, an analysis suggests that applying past growth rates and a 4-year cycle indicates $200,000 is a more realistic target.

According to Watcher.Guru, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, on August 6 (local time), many prominent figures including Jack Dorsey, Brian Armstrong, Robert Kiyosaki, Raoul Pal, Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and Changpeng Zhao have proposed $1 million as Bitcoin's target price for 2030.

Bitcoin has consistently formed new highs approximately every four years. Its price reached new peaks of $19,118 in 2017, $67,549 in 2021, and $126,080 in 2025. If this trend continues, the next all-time high could emerge around 2029, but doubts are raised about the possibility of it surpassing $1 million by the following year, 2030.

The rate of increase between peaks has also gradually slowed. From 2017 to 2021, the peak price increase was approximately 253%, but from 2021 to 2025, it decreased to about 86%. Considering the possibility that the growth rate in the next cycle might not even reach 86%, the media outlet's analysis suggests it would be difficult to reach $1 million by 2030.

However, given Bitcoin's steep growth over the past 15 years, the likelihood of it breaking its all-time high again in the coming years is highly rated. Watcher.Guru presented a scenario where the price at least doubles, surpassing $200,000 in the next cycle, as a more realistic target.

The expected path is a trend where an uptrend begins in 2027, forms a peak in 2029, and then enters a correction phase. Accordingly, while the $1 million forecast is closer to a long-term expectation, surpassing $200,000 is considered a realistic observation that reflects both past cycles and the slowing growth rate.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*