Solana hovers at $73... August 17th's unprecedented upgrade will decide its fate

▲ Solana (SOL)/AI generated image ©

Although Solana (SOL) remains 75% below its all-time high, cumulative inflows into spot ETFs exceeding $1.12 billion and the activation of major mainnet features starting on August 17th have emerged as catalysts for a reversal. Technically, whether it holds $72.27 support and breaks through $76.27 will determine its short-term direction.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on August 4 (local time), Solana traded between $73.19 and $73.43, moving only 0.17% over 24 hours. Its market capitalization was estimated at approximately $42 billion. The price has fallen by about 75% from its all-time high of $294.33 in January 2025, and by 40.68% since the beginning of this year. The Fear & Greed Index remained in the fear zone at 27, and the bullish ratio of technical indicators stayed at 13%.

Solana spot ETFs recorded net inflows on all U.S. trading days in July 2026. Since their launch on October 28, 2025, cumulative net inflows across five products have exceeded $1.12 billion, representing approximately 2.7% of Solana's market capitalization. Around 30 institutions hold products totaling $540 million, with annual staking yields of 5-7% and low management fees of 0.14% also cited as factors supporting institutional demand.

The biggest variable is the activation of the Alpenglow feature, starting the week of August 17th. This improvement will reduce storage rents by 90% and expand the maximum transaction size by 3.3 times, from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes. Slot times will also be shortened from 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds. When future consensus structure reforms are complete, the goal is to reduce transaction finalization time by up to 99%, from the current 12.8 seconds to approximately 100-150 milliseconds. However, the consensus feature will be activated separately in a subsequent client version.

Firedancer, an independent validator client, is also processing approximately 26% of the total staked amount through 207 validators on the mainnet. The network processed over 1 billion transactions, excluding votes, in one week in early July, and monthly token-holding addresses reached an all-time high of 167 million, with the value of tokenized real-world assets reaching $3.32 billion. This indicates a clear divergence between network metrics and price trends.

Technically, Solana is trading below its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages clustered between $75.81-$76.27, as well as its 100-day moving average of $79.72 and 200-day moving average of $92.45. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish at 43.05. If the daily closing price exceeds $76.27, the next targets would be $79.72 and $92.45. If the upgrade proceeds smoothly, conditional forecasts cited by the media suggest $100-$110. Conversely, if $72.27 fails, it could drop to $67, and then to $55-$65.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*