Bitcoin (BTC) Solidifying $60,000 Floor...Warning: '40% Chance of Further Crash'

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is building a base in the $60,000 range. However, the risk of further decline has not yet disappeared.

According to crypto-specialized media outlet CCN on August 4 (local time), the price of Bitcoin was tallied at $63,586. It has fallen 27.3% year-to-date and 33% in the first half alone. Compared to its all-time high of $126,200 recorded in October 2025, it is approximately 50% lower.

CCN assessed that Bitcoin is in the process of forming a floor rather than having confirmed one. A decrease in exchange holdings and accumulation in the $60,000-$70,000 range are supporting the price. Conversely, realized losses, low market participation, and expanded leverage are increasing the risk of further declines. The probability of stabilizing above $58,000-$60,000 in the next quarter is presented as 60%, while the probability of falling to $50,000-$58,000 is 40%.

Glassnode cited the recovery of on-chain activity and the robust movements of long-term holders as supporting factors. Inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs are also contributing to price defense. However, spot demand is weak, and derivative investors maintained a defensive stance. The analysis suggests that directional investing may be limited until clear upward momentum emerges.

According to Santiment, Bitcoin held by exchanges decreased to 5.6% of the total supply in May, the lowest ratio since 2018. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC controlled 21.3% of the total supply. Approximately 844,000 BTC were accumulated in the $60,000-$70,000 range by April. The market value relative to realized value was estimated at approximately 1.2, and the short-term holder indicator remained at 0.9. The 30-day realized profit/loss ratio was also 0.53, indicating that realized losses exceeded realized gains.

June's trading volume reached $4.74 trillion, with derivatives accounting for 84.5%. Open interest grew 46% from $44.2 billion in February to $64.7 billion in May. Subsequently, approximately $3 billion worth of forced liquidations occurred over two days, leading to an 8.5% decrease in total crypto open interest. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its hawkish stance by freezing the benchmark interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. In US Bitcoin spot ETFs, over $3.1 billion in cumulative net outflows occurred by early June 2026.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, suggested approximately $58,000 as an accumulation zone but assessed that immediate upward momentum is lacking. Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, cited a recovery to $75,000 as a key condition. Standard Chartered suggested a potential drop to $50,000 before recovery. CCN analyzed that a sustainable floor could only be confirmed after a recovery to $72,000-$75,000, an increase in realized market capitalization, and a moderation of leverage.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin has fallen 27.3% year-to-date and is attempting to form a floor in the $60,000 range.

-The probability of stabilizing above $58,000-$60,000 in the next quarter is presented as 60%, while the probability of falling to the $50,000 range is 40%.

-Confirming a sustainable floor requires a recovery to $72,000-$75,000 and a moderation of leverage.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*