XRP (Ripple) Fights to Hold $1.06 Amid Whale Wallet Increase to 11.98%

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XRP (Ripple) stands at a crossroads of $1.06, having lost its direction, but the increasing proportion held by whale wallets and cumulative spot ETF inflows of $1.51 billion are supporting the possibility of a rebound. Conversely, analysis suggests that if $1.06 collapses, it could fall to $0.80, requiring caution against increased volatility.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on August 4 (local time), XRP traded around $1.07, defending the $1.05-$1.06 support zone. Its market capitalization was estimated at approximately $65 billion to $68 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.06 billion. The price has fallen by 41.51% from $1.84 at the beginning of the year and is about 70.55% lower compared to its all-time high of $3.65-$3.84 across exchanges.

Technical indicators show that no clear trend has formed. XRP is trading below both its 20-day exponential moving average of $1.08 and its 50-day line of $1.12, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is 11.2, significantly below 20. The 24-hour trading volume turnover also only accounted for about 1.6% of the market capitalization, and whale transactions exceeding $1 million plummeted by over 97%, from approximately 70 cases per day to 2 cases.

Institutional fund inflows have also slowed. The XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of $27.29 million in July, continuing its positive trend for four consecutive months, but this was a 79% decrease compared to $131.94 million in May. Since its launch in November 2025, cumulative net inflows have reached $1.51 billion, with net assets totaling $988.78 million. The net asset size accounts for approximately 1.49% of the market capitalization, and a concentration phenomenon was observed on July 31, with 93% of inflows focused on a single product.

Large holders, on the other hand, are increasing their holdings. The supply share of wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens rose from 10.66% to 11.98% in just three days. This represents approximately 825 million tokens, or about $880 million at current market prices, moving into large wallets. Wallets that moved more than 1 million tokens from major exchanges accounted for 55.3% of the total withdrawals, and the exchange supply ratio also decreased to 0.03.

The biggest short-term variable is the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act. With the decreasing likelihood of its passage before the Senate recess, the prediction market's probability of passage in 2026 has fallen from a high of 43% in July to about 30%. The media diagnosed that if XRP breaks above $1.08 on a daily closing basis, it could open up to $1.35, passing through $1.12 and $1.20, but if it gives up $1.06, then $1.00, $0.90, and subsequently $0.80 could become downside targets.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*