Ethereum defends $1,850…Will ETFs and staking lead to a break above $2,000?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/AI generated image ©

While Ethereum (ETH) has held the $1,850 support level for two consecutive weeks, inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs and a decrease in circulating supply have emerged as key drivers for a re-break above $2,000. However, with weak trading volume and short-term momentum, if $1,839 is broken, the bullish structure could also be damaged.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on August 4 (local time), Ethereum started trading at $1,858.53 and then rose to $1,874.41. Its market capitalization is approximately $233 billion, but it is 62.28% lower than its all-time high of $4,953.73 recorded in August 2025. 24-hour trading volume also decreased by 55.47% to $4.54 billion, indicating that weakening selling pressure, rather than aggressive buying, is supporting the price.

Ethereum spot ETFs ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, recording approximately $365 million in net inflows in July, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $11 billion. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs recorded their lowest net inflows since launch in July, at only $205 million. However, a concern is that out of the 37,959 Ethereum spot ETF units created weekly recently, 98.6%, or 37,424 units, were concentrated in a single product, indicating a skewed demand base.

On the supply side, exchange holdings decreased by approximately 28% from over 21 million units a year ago to 15.1 million units. 33.6% of the total supply is locked in staking, and the validator withdrawal queue has virtually disappeared. The largest institutional holder, BitMine, holds 5.78 million units, which accounts for approximately 4.8% of the circulating supply, and earned $45.7 million in quarterly staking rewards. If fully staked, annual rewards are expected to reach approximately $300 million.

Technically, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1,868, and the 50-day EMA is at $1,849, with a difference of only $19 between the two indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the neutral line of 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has deteriorated to -10.2. If $1,885 is breached, it could challenge $2,000, passing through $1,900 and $1,940. However, if daily trading closes below $1,839, then $1,800 and $1,750 are cited as the next support levels.

Future variables include the Glamsterdam upgrade, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, and the Clarity Act. Glamsterdam aims to increase the gas limit from approximately 60 million to 200 million and reduce fees by up to 78%, but there's a possibility that its mainnet application could be delayed until September-October. The media suggested $2,055.47 as a key price to confirm a bullish trend reversal, stating that it must be supported by a break above $1,885, a recovery in trading volume, and monthly ETF net inflows exceeding $500 million.

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