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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image
Bitcoin (BTC) did not collapse despite major negative news. Analysis suggests that the market bottom is near.
Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, emphasized in a video released on August 4 (local time) that the price held up despite Strategy's sale of over 1,600 BTC and the Coldcard hack. Gambardello argued, “When shocking negative news fails to drag down the price, the market bottom is near.”
Gambardello analyzed that the current market resembles the 2022 bear market bottom. At that time, the FTX bankruptcy, BlockFi's bankruptcy protection filing, and Strategy's sale of 704 BTC occurred near the bottom. Strategy sold Bitcoin to reflect tax losses and then repurchased 810 BTC two days later.
The recent sale by Strategy is explained not as a withdrawal of confidence in Bitcoin but as a corporate financial strategy. Gambardello said that Strategy is using Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends. Michael Saylor, Chairman of Strategy, explained, “Strategy is a publicly traded company, not my personal wallet, and has stated since 2020 that it can buy and sell Bitcoin for capital management.”
Technical indicators also support the possibility of a long-term bottom formation. A bullish divergence appeared on Bitcoin's weekly chart, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index rebounded from a historically oversold zone. The price is testing the 200-week moving average, which acted as a bottom formation zone in 2018 and 2022. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization also remained near the 50-month moving average, which previously served as a bottom.
The macroeconomic environment is assessed to be more favorable than in 2022. At that time, record quantitative tightening began, but currently, quantitative tightening has ended, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has entered an expansion phase. Gambardello concluded, “I’m not saying the bottom is confirmed,” but noted that the market is forming a bottom as technical lows, economic expansion, and the corporate Bitcoin reserve asset model align.
[Article Key Summary]
-Despite Strategy's sale of over 1,600 BTC and the Coldcard hack, Bitcoin's price did not fluctuate significantly.
-Gambardello cited the 200-week moving average, bullish divergence, and oversold MACD as grounds for a bottom formation.
-While the end of quantitative tightening and the expansion of the Purchasing Managers' Index align, he drew a line, stating that the final bottom is not yet confirmed.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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