Upbit remains quiet despite oil prices collapsing below $80…Only newly listed coins surge and plummet

Upbit's Trading Volume 'Drought'…Even if Bitcoin holds 90 million won, the rebound market is empty

▲ Upbit Coin Market/AI generated image ©

As the U.S. stock market hit an all-time high and international oil prices fell below $80, the domestic cryptocurrency market also saw a slight rebound. However, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume decreased by 7.50%, and buying interest was concentrated on some newly listed and small-to-mid-cap coins, suggesting a selective rebound with low trading volume rather than an overall market trend reversal.

According to Upbit, as of 7:15 AM on the 5th, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at 91,248,000 won, up 0.96% from the previous day. The intraday high was 91,482,000 won, and the low was 90,099,000 won, maintaining the 90 million won level. Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.60% to 2,664,000 won, and Solana (SOL) increased 0.57% to 105,300 won. XRP (Ripple) remained flat at 1,531 won.

Market indices also rose across the board. The Upbit Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Upbit 10 Index rose 0.69%, and the Upbit 30 Index rose 0.62%. The Bitcoin Group and Ethereum Group also rose 0.96% and 0.60% respectively, but the Upbit Altcoin Index only increased by 0.20%. This indicates that the indices rebounded mainly due to large-cap coins, and buying interest did not spread across altcoins in general.

Selective surges were observed in small and medium-cap coins. On a weekly basis, Pearl (PRL) rose 39.31%, PumpFun (PUMP) rose 23.16%, ADA (Cardano) rose 17.45%, and Hey Elsa (ELSA) rose 17.28%. Volatility was even higher for newly listed tokens. DeFiApp (HOME) surged 41.91% from the previous day to 12.9 won, while Squid (SQUID) fell 14.57% to 170 won. The risk of FOMO buying has increased as supply and demand quickly diverge after listing.

The external background for the rebound is the renewed preference for risk assets originating from the U.S. On the 4th, local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.71%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.79%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.59%. The Dow and S&P 500 set new all-time highs. Brent crude fell 5.3% to $79.36 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 5.7% to $75.77, on expectations of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. It is interpreted that both the stock market and cryptocurrencies rebounded as geopolitical instability and energy price burdens eased simultaneously, and concerns about over-investment in artificial intelligence (AI) also subsided.

The problem is trading volume. According to Upbit Data Lab, as of 7:15 AM on this day, the 24-hour trading volume was 628.626 billion won, a 7.50% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative trading volume for the day was 606.432 billion won. The proportion of 24-hour trading volume was Tether (USDT) 18.17%, DeFiApp 9.32%, MetaDAO (META) 7.75%, Bitcoin 7.26%, and XRP 5.18%, in that order. The annual chart also showed trading volume falling to a low, making the so-called 'trading volume drought' evident.

The key for the market going forward is whether trading volume recovers while Bitcoin maintains the 90 million won level. If the risk-on sentiment in the U.S. stock market and the trend of falling oil prices continue, it could support a short-term rebound. However, with trading volume currently reduced, rising assets are likely to be limited to newly listed coins and certain themes. If Bitcoin breaks below its intraday low of 90,099,000 won, sentiment could quickly deteriorate. Conversely, if it surpasses 91,482,000 won and trading volume also increases, then the extent and sustainability of the rebound can be confirmed.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*