Bitcoin (BTC), Seasonal $58,000 Warning...Will the August 'Cruel History' Repeat?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency decline, bear market/AI generated image

As Bitcoin (BTC) has halved from its all-time high, there is a forecast that it could fall back to $58,000 in August.

According to 24/7 Wall St. on August 3 (local time), Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 and then fell to $63,000. It started at $87,500 in early January this year but dropped 34% in the first half alone. On June 25, it fell to $58,035, marking its lowest point since September 2024.

Bitcoin rebounded to $65,500 in July but failed to maintain its upward momentum. On July 16, it rose to $65,470 on news of slowing inflation but immediately dropped back to $64,000. On July 27, it recovered $65,500 but failed three times to break above $65,600. During this process, $75 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.

The average purchase price for investors who bought Bitcoin in the past five months is between $68,000 and $69,000. As investors who incurred losses sold off whenever the price rebounded, $65,500 solidified as a strong resistance level. Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average is also located at $66,000. To confirm an upward reversal, the weekly closing price must exceed $66,000.

Seasonal trends are also unfavorable for Bitcoin. Since trading began in 2013, Bitcoin has fallen in 9 out of 13 Augusts. The median August return is -7.49%, the only negative return for the year. If the same rate of decline repeats, Bitcoin could fall to $58,281 by the end of August. The average August decline over the past four years has also been 10%.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) froze the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29. In the vote, three committee members advocated for an interest rate hike. The interest rate futures market reflected an approximately 60% probability of an interest rate hike on September 16. The employment report on August 7, inflation data on August 12, and the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27 to 29 are key variables. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech was also cited as a factor that could determine market direction.

24/7 Wall St. presented a basic scenario of a consolidation range between $60,000 and $65,500. It analyzed that if inflation slows and interest rate hike expectations recede, it could rise to $68,000 to $70,000. Conversely, if inflation is higher than expected or Warsh makes hawkish remarks, it could fall to $55,000 to $58,000. Santiment data showed that wallets holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC additionally purchased 19,696 BTC in the week leading up to July 27.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin's value has halved, falling from its peak of $126,000 to $63,000.

-If the historical median August return of -7.49% repeats, the price could drop to $58,281.

-August inflation data, the Jackson Hole speech, and whether the $66,000 resistance level is broken will determine future trends.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*