Bitcoin, will it reclaim $100,000 in 2026? The Clarity Act is the biggest variable.

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), US/AI generated image ©

Amidst Bitcoin (BTC) being hampered by a bear market and geopolitical instability, an analysis suggests that regulatory clarity in the US and a recovery in risk asset investment sentiment are necessary for it to reclaim $100,000 within 2026.

According to cryptocurrency media Watcher.Guru on August 3 (local time), Bitcoin recorded an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, then turned bearish, and has not traded above $100,000 since November of the same year. While some signs of recovery have recently appeared, full-fledged upward momentum is still lacking.

The biggest hurdles are the bear market and diminished risk appetite. As cryptocurrency is classified as a representative high-risk asset, individual investors are reluctant to make active investments in a situation of increased market uncertainty.

The war between the US and Iran was also cited as a factor that dragged down Bitcoin's price. This is because inflation concerns grew as international oil prices soared after the war. Although the pace of inflation slowed in June, if July's figures rise again, the possibility of interest rate hikes could become prominent, leading investors to further avoid risk assets.

A key variable for a rebound is the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act. This bill aims to clarify regulatory standards for the US cryptocurrency market and strengthen investor protection. Analysis suggests that if the bill passes, an influx of funds from institutional and individual investors could increase, making it possible for Bitcoin to recover to $100,000.

In the long term, attention is also focused on Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Bitcoin has set new all-time highs in 2017, 2021, and 2025, and if this pattern repeats, the next peak could be formed in 2029. A new bull cycle is suggested to start from 2027. The media predicts that while the possibility of reclaiming $100,000 in 2026 remains, there are several challenges, and initial signs of a full-fledged bull market could appear next year.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*