Will Zcash (ZEC) Hold $460? On-chain and Futures Market Warnings

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Zcash (ZEC) has plummeted by approximately 20% over the past ten days, with decreasing on-chain utilization, exodus from the futures market, and intensifying selling pressure increasing the risk of the $460 support level collapsing.

According to investment media FXStreet on July 29 (local time), Zcash traded near $460 on Wednesday, attempting to stabilize after its recent sharp decline. However, with weakening network utilization and individual investor demand, coupled with strengthening downward momentum, the short-term outlook remains bearish.

According to Zkp.baby, the Total Shielded Value on the Zcash network decreased from 5.11 million ZEC in early June to 4.15 million ZEC. This sharp decline in shielded token volume indicates a reduction in network utilization and demand for the privacy coin. The growing risk-aversion sentiment across the virtual asset market ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision also acted as a burden.

Individual investor participation in the futures market has also shrunk. According to CoinGlass, ZEC futures open interest decreased by over 6% in 24 hours, totaling $800.92 million. During the same period, total liquidations amounted to $5.77 million, with long position liquidations accounting for $4.69 million, indicating a sell-side dominant position unwind. However, the funding rate remained positive at 0.0076%, suggesting that some investors are paying a premium to secure long positions, anticipating a rebound.

Technically, ZEC has remained below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $487 amid the downtrend since July 19. Conversely, it is trading above its 200-day EMA of $405 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $378 from the rally between $207 and $690. The current price is testing the upward support trendline near $460, which connects the lows of March 29 and June 28.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 42, below the baseline of 50, indicating increasing selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line also descended below the zero line after a bearish crossover last Thursday, supporting the possibility of further declines. If ZEC decisively closes below $460, a break from the upward support trendline will be confirmed, potentially leading to a drop to the 200-day EMA of $405 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $378. In the event of a rebound, the 50-day EMA of $487 would be the first resistance level, followed by $564, where the downward resistance trendline is located, as the next barrier.

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