13 consecutive quarters of simultaneous outperformance...Will Microsoft (MSFT) smile again this time?

▲ Microsoft (MSFT), Artificial Intelligence (AI)/AI-generated image

Microsoft (MSFT) is poised to extend its streak of beating revenue estimates for 13 consecutive quarters and EPS estimates for 15 consecutive quarters.

According to the economic media outlet Benzinga on July 28 (local time), Microsoft will announce its Q4 earnings after the market closes on the 29th. The revenue forecast is $87.61 billion, up from $76.44 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $3.65 to $4.23.

Patrick Walravens, an analyst at Citizens, maintained his 'outperform' rating and a price target of $550. He stated, “Despite concerns about cutting-edge AI models, competition in user-based licensing, and next year's capital expenditure, I view Microsoft positively.” He cited Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's AI sovereignty strategy and proprietary technology framework as reasons. He estimated the total potential market in 2030 to be $5.1 trillion.

Walravens analyzed that Microsoft's revenue growth rate increased from 15% in fiscal year 2025 to 17% in fiscal year 2026. John DiFucci, an analyst at Guggenheim, issued a 'buy' rating and a price target of $586. However, he assessed that the Windows business carries a risk of not meeting expectations.

DiFucci identified Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud as the core drivers of performance improvement. He estimated Azure's Q4 revenue growth rate to be 39-40%. In Q3, Azure and other cloud services revenue increased by 40% year-over-year. Overall Microsoft Cloud revenue also grew by 29%.

Microsoft's AI business annualized revenue has reached $37 billion. The market is closely watching cloud growth rates, AI revenue, and capital expenditure as key indicators. Microsoft's weighting is 4.5% in SPY, 4.4% in DIA, and 4.7% in QQQ. These earnings could directly impact the trends of major US stock indices and technology ETFs.

[Article Key Summary]

-Microsoft's Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to be $87.61 billion and $4.23, respectively.

-The company has surpassed revenue estimates for 13 consecutive quarters and EPS estimates for 15 consecutive quarters.

-Azure growth rate, $37 billion in annualized AI revenue, and capital expenditure are key variables for the earnings announcement.

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