Bitcoin held $64,000, but will the Fed curb the rebound?

▲ USD, Bitcoin (BTC) ©

Bitcoin (BTC) has held the $64,000 support level, but the four consecutive days of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, US-Iran tensions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are expected to determine the success or failure of a further rebound.

According to investment media FXStreet on July 29 (local time), Bitcoin rose slightly to around $64,400 on Wednesday after rebounding from a key technical support level the previous day. However, institutional fund outflows and geopolitical risks are pressuring investor sentiment, keeping the recovery fragile.

In the Middle East, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a surprise attack on local US forces with multiple ballistic missiles on Tuesday night. The US Central Command (Centcom) stated that all missiles were intercepted. Subsequently, US and Saudi Arabian forces struck several logistics and weapons facilities in eastern Iraq in response to over 30 drone attacks by pro-Iranian groups over the past three days. The re-escalation of tensions caused a sharp rebound in oil prices, raising concerns about energy supply disruptions and inflation, and the weakening preference for risk assets limited BTC's upside.

Market attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) benchmark interest rate decision scheduled for today. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of keeping interest rates at 3.50-3.75% was reflected as 70.6%, while the probability of a 25bp hike was 29.4%. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also increased since new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stepped back from forward guidance. While slowing inflation in June supports the hold outlook, rising oil prices, supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump's new tariff plans are considered upside risks to inflation.

Lacy Zhang, a researcher at Bitget Wallet, analyzed that while an interest rate hold is the base scenario, the rapidly reflected possibility of a hike has increased the importance of this meeting. If a hawkish hold or an unexpected hike materializes, funds could concentrate on dollar-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized US Treasuries, leading to further deleveraging in Ethereum (ETH), altcoins, and memecoins. Conversely, if a balanced message emerges that oil-driven inflation shocks do not justify further tightening, there is a possibility of a gradual shift of funds into high-risk on-chain assets. He added that the recovery of market risk appetite should be confirmed through stablecoin supply, exchange balances, ETH/BTC ratio, Bitcoin dominance, perpetual futures open interest and funding rates, and decentralized finance (DeFi) lending and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes.

Institutional demand is weakening. According to SoSoValue, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $49.75 million on Tuesday, marking four consecutive trading days of capital flight. Technically, BTC remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), maintaining a short-term bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50, indicating neutral to mild bullish momentum, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has deepened further into negative territory, suggesting that upward attempts are fragile. Upper resistance levels are the 50-day EMA at $64,967, the 100-day EMA at $67,621, the 200-day EMA at $73,665, and $84,410. Conversely, if the $64,004 support breaks, it could open the possibility of a decline to the year's lowest price of $57,800 recorded on July 1.

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