Good news broke out with a 65% surge in revenue...Why can't Nvidia (NVDA) break the $205 barrier?

▲ Nvidia (NVDA), Data Center, Memory Chips, China/AI Generated Image

Nvidia (NVDA) has achieved record-high performance but is stuck at the $205 threshold. China's export restrictions and elevated expectations are weighing down the stock price.

According to the US financial media FX Leaders on July 28 (local time), Nvidia's revenue for fiscal year 2026 was tallied at $215.9 billion, a 65% increase from $130.5 billion in the previous year. Net profit also increased by 65% to $120.1 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $4.9, and operating profit was $130.4 billion. The gross profit margin recorded 71.1%.

The growth rate accelerated further in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Revenue was $81.6 billion, an 85% increase year-over-year. Compared to the previous quarter, it rose by 20%. Data center revenue surged by 92% to a record high of $75.2 billion, accounting for approximately 92% of total revenue. Data center networking revenue jumped by 199% to $14.8 billion.

Nvidia projected its Q2 revenue to be $91.0 billion, with an expected error margin of 2%. The GAAP gross profit margin forecast is 74.9%, and the non-GAAP forecast is 75%. However, the forecast does not include revenue from computational semiconductors for data centers in China. China's export restrictions have been identified as a key variable lowering growth expectations.

Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra are key growth drivers. The CUDA ecosystem is considered a competitive advantage that increases the cost for customers to switch to other semiconductors. The industry estimates that Nvidia accounts for 75-90% of the AI accelerator and data center GPU market. The company is also investing in the next-generation Rubin platform. In May 2026, the board added $80 billion to the share repurchase limit. The quarterly dividend was raised from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share.

The stock price rebounded from $194.13 after a sharp drop but remained below major resistance levels. The 50-period exponential moving average is $204.63. The 200-period exponential moving average is $204.55. The short-term resistance level is set at $200.82. If it breaks through $205, the next target is $213.19. The Relative Strength Index recovered to approximately 38 from the oversold zone but did not reach the neutral line of 50. If $194.13 is breached, $189.92 and $185.68 are the lower support levels.

[Article Key Summary]

-Nvidia's revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $215.9 billion, and net profit was $120.1 billion, each increasing by 65%.

-In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, data center revenue surged by 92% to $75.2 billion, but China's export restrictions remain a burden.

-For the stock price to resume its upward trend, it must overcome the resistance zone of $204.55-$205.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*