"Securing 60 votes, 38% chance of passage"...US crypto bill, last-minute behind-the-scenes negotiations

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The U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill has entered the Senate's path to passage, contingent on a compromise on ethics clauses and securing Democratic votes.

Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, stated in an interview with Paul Barron, host of the crypto-focused YouTube channel Paul Barron Network, on July 28 (local time), that “the bill is in the optimal position for passage and within reach of the finish line.” Mersinger assessed that Senate passage is imminent, as negotiating parties are directly coordinating the text. She explained that members of the Democratic Party who wish to support the bill are also participating in the negotiations, making it possible to secure the necessary 60 votes.

The biggest point of contention is the ethics clause, which aims to limit the cryptocurrency interests of U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicted, “If even a small compromise is made on the ethics issue, the bill will pass.” Mersinger also considered the White House's submission of an ethics regulation proposal for the incumbent president to the Senate a significant step forward. The argument is that after the Democratic Party modifies the text, both parties can find an agreeable compromise.

The Senate is preparing for a procedural vote to bring the bill to the floor. Mersinger predicted that Senate passage could happen within days or a week. However, since the Senate has significantly amended the bill that came from the House, the House must vote on the Senate's version again. If the House passes the amended bill, it will be sent to the President without going through a bicameral conference committee.

While the prediction market Polymarket reflected a 38% chance of the bill's passage, Mersinger argued that the actual negotiation situation is more positive than that figure. She explained that although the Democratic Party publicly criticizes the ethics clause, behind the scenes, lawmakers and working-level officials are adjusting the consensus text. It is also reported that the banking sector has been delivering opposing materials to senators and mobilizing local banks for last-minute lobbying. Mersinger refuted the claim that stablecoins trigger large-scale deposit outflows from local banks, stating there is no supporting evidence.

Mersinger emphasized that the bill will strengthen consumer protection regulations and provide legal certainty to U.S. cryptocurrency companies. She argued that without clear regulatory standards, developers and entrepreneurs might remain overseas, fearing sanctions for selling unregistered securities. She stressed the necessity of Senate passage, stating that if a situation similar to FTX were to occur again, Congress would find it difficult to evade responsibility for delaying the bill's processing.

[Key Summary of Article]

-The U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill has entered the Senate's path to passage, contingent on a compromise on ethics clauses and securing Democratic support.

-If the Senate passes the amended bill, the House will vote on the text again and then send it to the President.

-Despite ongoing lobbying against the bill from the banking sector, proponents of the bill have put forward consumer protection and legal certainty as key justifications.

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