Bitcoin (BTC), $1.4 Billion Options Expiry Bomb Warning...Must Hold $62,000 to Survive

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), US Dollar (USD)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a test of its $62,000 defense ahead of a $1.4 billion options expiry. While demand for bearish bets was limited, the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4.6% has made breaking above $63,500 a critical juncture for short-term trends.

According to crypto media outlet Cointelegraph on July 9 (local time), Bitcoin reclaimed $63,000, but the market remained cautious about a price correction ahead of Deribit's $1.4 billion options expiry on the 10th. The analysis suggests that investors' anxiety has grown as the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 4.6%, increasing the burden of additional monetary policy to curb expanding government debt and economic recession.

Competition for funds among risk assets is also putting pressure on Bitcoin. The Nasdaq 100 index remained just 4% below its all-time high, and the strong performance of the AI sector is attracting funds to the stock market. On the 8th, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $85 million, breaking a three-day streak of inflows. However, Cointelegraph analyzed that it is difficult to confirm a shift in institutional fund flows based solely on this figure.

The options market appears to be favoring the defense of $62,000 rather than a decline. Call option trading volume has exceeded put options for the past four days, reducing demand for further downside protection. Among the options expiring on the 10th, call options below $62,500 amounted to $137 million, and put options above $61,000 totaled $121 million.

Bitcoin bulls can secure a $190 million advantage if the price exceeds $63,500 by the expiry time at 8 AM UTC on the 10th. Conversely, bears gain a $100 million advantage below $61,000, but the analysis suggests that their incentive to push the price down further is relatively limited without additional negative catalysts.

Cointelegraph identified US Treasury yields and the potential for rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict as key variables. While the recent put option buying interest is not strong, the $62,000 support level could become more robust. However, even if options expire above $63,500, sustained upward momentum would require an improvement in the macroeconomic environment.

[Key Article Summary]

-Bitcoin is testing the $62,000 support level ahead of Deribit's $1.4 billion options expiry.

-If it surpasses $63,500, bulls will secure a $190 million advantage, but below $61,000, bears will gain a $100 million advantage.

-Although put option buying interest was limited, US 10-year Treasury yields and oil price movements due to the Iran conflict were identified as short-term price variables.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*