Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market 'Signs'...VanEck Recommends "Increasing Weighting Over the Next Few Months"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency Whale/AI Generated Image

The theory of a Bitcoin (BTC) bear market bottom is once again raising its head. While VanEck mentioned increasing Bitcoin weighting over the next few months, long-term holders bought 270,000 BTC last month. Also, signals suggesting a weakening of selling pressure have been observed on the charts.

Lark Davis, host of the crypto-focused podcast The Lark Davis Show, stated in an episode on July 9 (local time) that VanEck's Matthew Sigel sees Bitcoin's price much higher a year from now than it is currently. Davis explained that VanEck presented the stance to institutional clients that they "should start building Bitcoin positions over the next few months," and described it as being close to a dollar-cost averaging strategy, investing cash incrementally from now on.

Davis noted that while some market participants following the four-year cycle theory are discussing a potential drop to $40,000 in October, he also left open the possibility that Bitcoin could form a bottom at its current price level. Assuming the next peak reaches $200,000 to $300,000, he argued that "whether you bought Bitcoin at $60,000 or $40,000 might not make a huge difference when it's at $200,000, $250,000, or $300,000."

Analysis suggests that selling pressure has largely been exhausted. Investment research firm Brownstone raised the possibility of a bear market bottom signal, citing a bullish divergence in recent Bitcoin price movements. Davis claimed that participants with strong selling intentions among miners, short-term holders, and some ETF investors have already liquidated significant amounts. While about $80 million flowed out of Bitcoin spot ETFs recently after three consecutive trading days of inflows, this was interpreted as selling by short-term oriented investors who reacted sensitively to the Iran situation.

In contrast, long-term holders bought 270,000 BTC last month. Davis emphasized that this volume exceeds 1% of the total supply, and whales managing large funds viewed prices below $60,000 as a buying opportunity. On short-term charts, Bitcoin has broken above the 20-day exponential moving average and is now retesting that level, and if it bounces from here and moves towards the 50-day exponential moving average, it could create an uptrend structure with successively higher highs and lows.

However, Davis drew a line, stating that if it fails to rebound from the 20-day exponential moving average, the previous breakout could end as a failed trend. He stated, "It's still a very early stage," and did not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin retreating to lower support levels. Amidst VanEck's long-term bullish outlook and long-term holders' accumulation of 270,000 BTC, the defense of the 20-day exponential moving average was presented as a key point determining the short-term direction.

[Article Key Summary]

-VanEck reportedly presented the stance that institutional clients should start building Bitcoin positions over the next few months.

-Long-term holders bought 270,000 BTC last month, and Davis claimed that a significant portion of the holdings of market participants with strong selling intentions has been liquidated.

-Bitcoin is retesting the 20-day exponential moving average, and analysis suggests that it must rebound from this level to continue its short-term upward structure.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*