Is the Cryptocurrency Market Shaking Again? Clouds of Concern Over Middle East War and India's Regulations

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While Bitcoin (BTC) briefly recovered to $64,000 before falling back to the $62,000 range, an analysis suggests that the resumption of military clashes between the US and Iran, along with the possibility of cryptocurrency regulations in India, are emerging as new negative factors for the market.

According to Watcher.Guru, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on July 9 (local time), the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market is largely due to the re-escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran. Peace negotiations between the two countries were on the verge of being finalized but ultimately fell apart, and the US resumed military operations against Iran. In response, Iran retaliated by attacking US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Concerns are growing in the market that this situation could trigger another energy crisis.

The outlet analyzed that rising energy prices could add further burden to an already weak economy. US inflation for May 2026 recorded 4.2%, and it explained that prices could rise further if international oil prices increase. In this scenario, the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates increases, and rising interest rates generally dampen investment sentiment for risk assets, which could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.

Another variable is India's regulatory moves. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, has once again emphasized the need to ban cryptocurrencies. Indian authorities are concerned that transactions through foreign exchanges could lead to tax evasion and difficulties in tracking. India is known to be one of the countries with the most cryptocurrency investors in the world, with approximately 39 million investors holding about $2 billion worth of cryptocurrencies.

The outlet assessed that the cryptocurrency market has been in a sluggish trend for several months, and a clear recovery is unlikely to be seen anytime soon. Zhang Zuoer, a prominent Chinese miner, predicted that a significant upward trend for Bitcoin might only emerge after it forms a bottom around $42,000-$44,000 by the end of this year.

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