Stablecoin Regulation Act D-9...Circle, Coinbase, Risk of Simultaneous Stock Price Plunge?

▲ Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN)/AI-generated image

The regulatory clock has started ticking again. With the deadline for enacting the GENIUS rules of the Stablecoin Regulation Act approaching in ten days, the stock prices of Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) are threatening key support levels, and the market's attention is focused on the detailed rules to be announced on July 18.

According to CoinGape, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on July 9 (local time), federal agencies including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department must issue implementation guidelines for the GENIUS Act by July 18. The GENIUS Act, signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on July 18, 2025, established a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, and Congress granted a one-year period to establish rules for issuance, licensing, and management.

In the market, Circle and Coinbase are considered stocks that will react sensitively to the rule announcement. CoinGape noted Circle's movements given that USDC is the largest stablecoin by trading volume. Kalshi presented a 46% probability of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill passing, and the banking sector opposes allowing Circle, Coinbase, and others to offer returns to stablecoin holders.

Circle has fallen to the $61 support level, and CoinGape analyzed that if it forms a closing price below $61 for three consecutive trading days, it could drop to $49, its February low. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34, indicating a bearish trend, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also remains in negative territory. Amid rising geopolitical tensions fueling sell-offs, bearish indicators overlap, and $49 has been mentioned as the next downside target.

Coinbase also fell below its psychological support level of $160. After failing to break above $168 on July 6, the upward momentum weakened, and an analysis suggests that if the downtrend continues, it could fall to $139, its June 26 low. A decline in the Average Directional Index (ADX) and negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) lend weight to a bearish outlook; conversely, CoinGape reported that if it forms a closing price above $168 for three consecutive trading days, the possibility of a rebound towards $200 opens up.

[Key Article Summary]

-The deadline for the announcement of the detailed implementation rules for the Stablecoin Regulation Act GENIUS is July 18.

-For Circle, $49 is presented as a major bottom if the $61 support level breaks, and for Coinbase, $139 if the decline continues.

-Analysis suggests that Coinbase needs to form a closing price above $168 for three consecutive trading days for a rebound towards $200 to become possible.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*