Bitcoin (BTC) sees $280 million in daily stop-loss liquidation... When will it escape the bear market?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to reclaim key price levels, and with increasing losses for long-term holders and sluggish institutional demand, it has not yet escaped its bearish structure.

According to crypto media outlet FXStreet on July 9 (local time), Glassnode analyzed that Bitcoin is trading below both its realized market average of $76,600 and the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at $72,200. Glassnode stated, "Until these price levels are recovered, the market will remain in a severely undervalued territory and structurally vulnerable to external negative factors."

Long-term holders (LTHs) were at the center of the selling pressure. The proportion of LTH losses in total realized value surged from 15% in early February to 43%, and the adjusted realized losses for Bitcoin held for over 155 days recently hit approximately $280 million per day, the highest since December 2022. Glassnode diagnosed this as "a direct explanation for why new selling pressure emerges from the cohort of holders in loss whenever the price attempts to reclaim the upper bound of the current range."

While the outflow rate from US Bitcoin spot ETFs slowed, there were no clear signs of a recovery in institutional demand. The 30-day moving average of net outflows decreased from $193 million per day in early June to $88.9 million per day, but Glassnode assessed that "while the slowdown in outflows is provisionally positive, the market still experiences net outflows on a monthly basis." Daily ETF trading volume also remained between $650 million and $950 million, approximately 80% lower than the peak of $4.4 billion per day recorded in October 2025.

Some improvement in investor sentiment was observed in the derivatives market. The Bitcoin options put-call ratio fell to a year-low of 0.56, and the perpetual futures funding rate indicated that investors are cautiously moving into long positions rather than aggressively betting on further declines. However, the 25-delta skew across all maturities remained positive, suggesting strong demand for downside protection, and Bitcoin was trading approximately 6% below the options' composite maximum pain price of $66,000. Glassnode stated, "A sustained recovery above $66,000 would shift the short-term outlook to positive, but a widening gap would strengthen defensive positioning across the options market."

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin is trading below both its realized market average of $76,600 and the cost basis of short-term holders at $72,200.

-The proportion of long-term holder losses surged from 15% in early February to 43%, and daily realized losses increased to approximately $280 million.

-While outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs slowed, trading volume was about 80% lower than the October 2025 peak, indicating sluggish institutional demand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*