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▲ XRP, Stellar (XLM)/AI generated image ©
XRP (Ripple) and Stellar (XLM) are experiencing increased downward pressure due to a combination of geopolitical instability and technical weakness. Amid a decline in risk asset preference due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, analysis suggests that the continued trading below key moving averages indicates a higher possibility of further short-term correction.
According to investment media FXStreet on July 9 (local time), XRP has fallen more than 6% this week, trading at $1.086, below $1.090. XLM has also fallen for five consecutive trading days, with its cumulative decline exceeding 10% this week. The media reported that the U.S. conducted additional airstrikes in response to Iranian attacks targeting merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran also attacked U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, escalating tensions. Furthermore, U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the ceasefire with Iran had ended further dampened investor sentiment.
The macro environment also acted as a burden. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June, released by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), showed differing opinions among members regarding the direction of interest rates. However, with growing inflation concerns and slightly eased labor market concerns, the market interpreted it as hawkish. Consequently, the probability of an interest rate hike at the next meeting, according to CME FedWatch, rose from less than 20% last week to over 30%, and Bitcoin (BTC) also fell below $62,000, putting pressure on the overall cryptocurrency market.
Institutional demand also weakened somewhat. According to SoSoValue's aggregation, the XRP spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $7.29 million on the 9th, shifting from the previous two days of flat flow to capital outflow. In contrast, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant analyzed that while large whale investor buy orders were detected in XRP's spot and futures markets, other indicators remained at neutral levels, suggesting cautious optimism. For XLM, sell-side dominance was observed in both spot and futures markets, and the movements of individual investors and whales were mixed, indicating a generally cautious investment sentiment.
Technically, both assets show a clear bearish trend. XRP is maintaining a downward channel below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating slowing momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also suggested weakening upward momentum. Short-term resistance is formed at $1.090, the upper bound of the downward channel, and $1.173, the 50-day EMA. The media analyzed that if these levels are not recovered, the bearish trend is likely to continue. XLM also has its 100-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs all above the current price, limiting upward movement. Its RSI is around 42, and MACD has re-entered negative territory. Short-term support levels are $0.180 and $0.177, and if these levels break, further declines to $0.173 and $0.142 could be possible.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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