Bitcoin (BTC) Recovers $60,000... 'Fake Rebound' Warning as Bull Score Remains at 20

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed $60,000, fueling expectations for further gains in July, but key indicators for a bull market transition remain in bearish territory, raising caution about the nature of this rebound.

According to crypto media outlet FXStreet on July 9 (local time), CryptoQuant analyzed that with Bitcoin recovering $60,000, July seasonality, improved demand, and easing selling pressure could support a short-term upward trend. Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has risen in most Julys, increasing by approximately 20% and 17% in 2018 and 2022, respectively, even during bear markets. CryptoQuant stated, "As Bitcoin enters July 2026, having just emerged from a bear market bottom, seasonal trends are tilting the weight of short-term risk towards further upside."

Demand indicators are also emerging from an extreme contraction phase. The 30-day change in Bitcoin's total demand, combining spot market activity and perpetual futures positions, fell to approximately minus 650,000 BTC in early June, marking the steepest decline since 2022, but has since approached neutral levels. As speculative futures demand turned slightly positive and spot market selling pressure significantly slowed, CryptoQuant explained, "If demand turns into positive territory, it confirms that demand momentum is reviving."

Selling pressure from US investors also appears to be weakening. The Coinbase Premium Index recovered to minus 0.062 from the deep negative territory recorded in early June. CryptoQuant stated, "Although it is still below 0, the improvement in premium coincided with Bitcoin's recovery to $64,000, indicating that institutional investment demand is stabilizing." The unrealized profit and loss ratio of Bitcoin held for 1 to 3 months also dropped below minus 24% in early June, significantly below the minus 12% baseline used as a short-term undervaluation signal. CryptoQuant analyzed that extreme figures often coincided with short-term holders' capitulation, forming local bottoms.

However, signals for the end of the bear market have not yet appeared. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which tracks on-chain activity, market environment, and valuation indicators, remains at 20. Below 40 is considered a bear market, and above 60 is associated with a sustainable bull market. CryptoQuant stated, "To confirm a sustainable rise and a true bull market phase, the score must exceed 60 again," adding, "Until then, it is appropriate to consider this rebound as a bear market recovery rather than a trend reversal."

[Key Summary of the Article]

-Bitcoin recovered $60,000, with past July seasonality and improved demand cited as factors for further gains.

-The 30-day change in Bitcoin's total demand approached neutral levels from approximately minus 650,000 BTC in early June, and selling pressure from US investors also eased.

-CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index remains at 20, in bearish territory, and the analysis suggests that until it exceeds 60, it should be considered a bear market recovery rather than a trend reversal.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*