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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
Bitcoin (BTC) has recaptured the psychological support level of $60,000, raising expectations for a July rally, but on-chain analysis suggests that the risk of a bear market still looms. While historical seasonal strength and recovering demand support short-term upward momentum, a cautious stance prevails, making it too early to confirm a complete market trend reversal.
According to investment media FXStreet on July 9 (local time), on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated in a report that Bitcoin is likely to see further gains this month after recovering the $60,000 level. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown a particularly strong performance in July even during bear market cycles, recording rallies of approximately 20% in July 2018, when the downturn was deep, and 17% in July 2022. Experts analyze that since Bitcoin has passed its bear market bottom ahead of July 2026, this seasonal pattern lends weight to the possibility of a short-term rise.
Bitcoin, which recently rebounded from a low of $58,000, has moved past its worst contraction phase and is showing a gradual recovery in spot and perpetual futures demand. As recently as early June, the 30-day total Bitcoin demand change, combining spot market activity and perpetual futures positions, plummeted to -650,000 BTC, marking the steepest decline since 2022. However, it has now recovered to a neutral level as perpetual futures demand has slightly increased and spot selling pressure has eased. If this indicator turns positive again, it can be interpreted as a full restart of the demand engine.
The recovery in investment sentiment among U.S. institutional investors is also encouraging. The Coinbase Premium Index, which was hovering in a severely negative territory in early June, recently recovered to -0.062, indicating a significant easing of selling pressure from U.S. investors. Although the index remains below 0, the improvement in premium coincided with Bitcoin's surge to the $64,000 level during the day, demonstrating that it has escaped the -24% zone, a localized bottoming area accompanied by capitulation from short-term holders, and entered a stable recovery trajectory after rebounding from $57,700.
However, CryptoQuant warned that despite the recent rebound, macro bear market conditions still persist. This is because the 'Bull Score Index,' which aggregates on-chain activity, market conditions, and valuation metrics, currently stands at 20. Typically, an index below 40 signifies a bear market, while exceeding 60 indicates entry into a sustainable bull market. Experts added that until the index rises above 60, the current rise should be viewed as a temporary technical rebound within a bear market, not a trend reversal. Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,010, down about 2% from 24 hours ago.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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