Ethereum's bullish trend has returned, but why can't it break past $1,800?

▲ Ethereum (ETH)/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

Ethereum (ETH) has partially regained its bullish lead with a recent rebound, but analysis suggests it lacks the strength for a full uptrend reversal, as buying interest from institutional and retail investors remains limited.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on July 9 (local time), Ethereum has risen by about 10% this month, but buying interest remains weak. The on-chain indicator Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) improved from -0.46 to -0.30, but investors' holdings are still in the loss zone. The outlet analyzed that investors can only return to the profit zone with a further rally accompanied by strong buying pressure.

On-chain data also showed limited recovery. Over the past week, whale investors holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH purchased an additional approximately 100,000 ETH, but there was no significant change in their total holdings over the last three weeks. Wallets holding 100-1,000 ETH and 1,000-10,000 ETH, primarily belonging to retail investors, also showed little change in balances. Meanwhile, according to SoSoValue data, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days for the first time since early May, with total net inflows amounting to $91.5 million. However, the outlet assessed that this level of capital inflow was insufficient to significantly boost the price.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects US investor sentiment, also showed slight improvement. The index rose from -0.169 to -0.076, indicating better US investment demand than before, but overall demand remained weak. The outlet explained that historically, a significant bull market has only emerged when both the Coinbase Premium Index and Ethereum spot ETF inflows maintained high levels simultaneously. It added that in the derivatives market, open interest remained largely unchanged over the past week, suggesting that leveraged investors are also refraining from aggressively building positions.

Technically, the short-term rebound is still unstable. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum experienced liquidations totaling $61.6 million, with long position liquidations accounting for the majority at $51.5 million. The price is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1,803 and the 100-day EMA of $1,965, and is currently testing support near the 20-day EMA of $1,714. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are also declining towards 51 and 70, respectively, indicating a slowdown in buying momentum.

The outlet analyzed that the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1,714 is a critical short-term support level. If this level breaks, $1,524 and $1,404 were presented as the next support levels, with a further decline potentially opening up to $1,155. Conversely, if Ethereum breaks above the 50-day EMA of $1,803 and the horizontal resistance of $1,806, there could be room for an upside to $1,909, then the 100-day EMA of $1,965, and potentially to $2,018 and $2,107.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*